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Dogecoin price is currently showing a very bearish chart pattern on the 4-hour time frame, indicating potential caution for investors. After forming a bullish falling wedge pattern between November 12 and 19, the expected breakout was short-lived and failed to meet bullish expectations.
On November 19, Dogecoin broke out of the formation, sparking initial optimism among traders. However, crypto analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) said. anticipation The breakout will be weak, and subsequent price action has confirmed the validity of his prediction.
Where does Dogecoin price go next?
The memecoin faced sharp rejection at a major resistance level, specifically the 0.786 macro Fibonacci retracement level. Kevin stressed that until this level is “clearly and violently breached, there is nothing to get too crazy about.” He also noted that Bitcoin (BTC) is facing significant resistance, suggesting that Dogecoin’s next significant move will likely coincide with Bitcoin crossing the $100,000 level. “Until then, everything will be a mess,” he noted.
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Kevin urged traders to tone down their excitement, saying: “Please control your excitement because there is nothing to get excited about in the short term. BTC is still at huge resistance and so is Dogecoin. Nothing has broken yet.” He highlighted the importance of Bitcoin’s movements, adding: “It is important to provide technical analysis for BTC rather than Dogecoin at the moment. DOGE is only trading sideways, waiting for Bitcoin to make a decision on whether higher or lower. Where Bitcoin goes, Doge will go in the long run.” “The short one.”
Analyzing the 4-hour chart, Kevin identified a “bad triple top” at the overall 0.786 Fibonacci level for Dogecoin – a bearish signal that could indicate upcoming bearish pressure. He warned that if a correction to $0.30 occurs, as he previously suggested, “a lot of blind bulls will need to do some explaining.”
The triple top is a bearish reversal pattern in technical analysis that indicates a potential shift from an uptrend to a downtrend. This happens when the price reaches the same resistance level three times, and each time it retreats after failing to breach it. Dogecoin’s repeated inability to surpass the 0.786 Fib level at $0.41 indicates weak short-term bullish momentum.
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Kevin stressed that Dogecoin has not actually broken out yet: “Until it breaks the overall 0.786 Fib level cleanly at $0.41, it is only trading sideways.” Looking ahead, select a bullish scenario conditional on this key resistance level being overcome. “If Dogecoin breaks this 0.786 Fibonacci macro by force, $0.80 to $0.85 will be on the table. Lots of work to do though. We need BTC to go higher,” he explained.
For several days, Kevin has been anticipating a deeper correction for Dogecoin. The formation of the triple top and rejection at the 0.786 Fibonacci level supports his basic hypothesis. He set his initial price target: “The level we want to hold for Dogecoin is the $0.30 to $0.26 range, which is the Golden Pocket retracement levels. This is a 30-40% retracement from the local high, which is an ideal volume correction in a bull market.”
Focusing on the long-term perspective, Kevin highlighted the importance of the upcoming monthly candle close. “The next big target for Dogecoin is an 11-day monthly close above $0.335. This would make the highest monthly closing candle ever for DOGE, and I will be watching that closely.”
At press time, DOGE was trading at $0.39.
Featured image created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com