Investing.com — The dollar inched higher Wednesday and will remain the king of the currency playground until U.S. “economic exceptionalism” cools, paving the way for the Federal Reserve to lay out a clearer map for rate cuts.
rose 0.15% to 105.66
“Until the rest of the world begins to surpass the U.S., and until the Fed sets forth a clearer horizon for the start of policy easing, we continue to believe that it will be difficult for FX to rally against the USD,” Macquarie said in Wednesday note.
“US economic exceptionalism” remains the “dominate theme” in FX, Macquarie said, and has encouraged the Federal Reserve to lean hawkish at time when other central banks appear to signaling for sooner rather than later rate cuts.
The Fed remains “far and away more hawkish sounding than the ECB, BoE, BoC, and RBA,” Macquarie says, noting that the PCE price index on Friday and U.S. GDP on Thursday will be closely watched.
The bump in the road for the dollar, however, could come only after the summer, Macquarie, though cautions that a various factors will need to come together including a further slowing inflation, slowing euro-area growth and easing geopolitical turmoil.
There some signs, however, that other economies on the mend as recent data1 economic data from UK and Euro surprised the upside and helped and the rebound yesterday, but “it will take a more sustained period of outperformance by the rest-of-the world to shake confidence in US economic exceptionalism.”