It’s a data-packed agenda for the session ahead, with a big focus on the particularly surveyed manufacturing PMI out of China for June.
China has two major PMI surveys – the official PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Caixin China PMI published by Caixin media and research firm Markit/S&P Global.
The official PMI survey was released last week, for manufacturing and services. Manufacturing still teetering on recession in deflation below 50:
While the National Bureau of Statistics’ purchasing managers’ indices cover large enterprises and state-owned enterprises, the Caixin PMI survey covers more small and medium-sized enterprises. As a result, the Caixin PMI is a more reliable indicator of private sector performance in China. Another difference between the two surveys is their methodology. The Caixin PMI survey uses a wider sample of companies than the official survey. Despite these differences, the two surveys often provide similar readings for China’s manufacturing sector.
The Caixin survey is expected to show that the manufacturing sector is on the way to expansion.
–
You will also notice the monthly inflation reading from Australia. for the month of June. Last week we published our monthly inflation report for May:
The May reading was from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Today’s special survey. The ABS Monthly Inflation Survey is a newer indicator, and the TD/MI has been around much longer and is a respectable survey. It’s also ahead of the ABS poll, meaning we’ll get the June reading today. Inflation in Australia is still high. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday 4th July and there is a strong possibility of a cash rate hike.
In fact, RBA Deputy Governor Bullock spoke the week before last, and she was really hawkish:
- RBA Governor Bullock says employment and the economy need to grow below trend for a while
- RBA Governor says higher rates are the only tool the RBA must have to rein in inflation
Australia has 4 large commercial banks, a sample of which analysts show tends to increase tomorrow from the RBA:
This screenshot is from the ForexLive economic data calendar, Access it here.
-
The times in the leftmost column are GMT.
-
The numbers in the rightmost column are the “previous” result (previous month/quarter as the case may be). The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the expected consensus mean.
I noticed data for New Zealand and Australia in text as the similarity of the little flags can be confusing at times.