Next month, Israel has encountered 46 years since the signing of the peace agreement with Egypt, who had previously launched a fierce war against Israel. But then in 1979, then Israeli Prime Minister Minashim announced, “No more war, no more bloodshed, no more tears,” as the peace agreement signed on the White Park with Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and US President Jimmy Carter. Since then, a lot of water has flowed below the Nile. Since US President Donald Trump announced his plan to transfer to Ghazan, which includes plans to transfer many of them to Egypt, the winds of war seems to be blowing again between Israel and Egypt.
In recent weeks, there has been an increasing talk, whether on social media or from officials on both sides, that Egypt is preparing for the war: from videos of Egyptian military training to mutual threats. The Egyptian deputy said to Mustafa Bakri this week: “Woe to Israel if he committed a mistake in destroying the Aswan Dam or Egypt's security, because the Egyptian army will occupy Tel Aviv in one day.” The Israeli response was not long on his arrival, when the Israeli ambassador to the United States accused, Cairo Leiter, with major violations of the peace agreement: “There are rules that are built and can only be used in offensive operations.” Is the peace agreement between Israel and Egypt likely to collapse collapse in the opening of a new front?
“There are runways in Sinai suitable for combat aircraft.”
In order to answer this complex question, it is worth looking at one of the main sentences in the 1979 peace agreement. General Evi Defern (Al -Daqqa), who was even a few months ago headed the International Cooperation Department of the IDF says that in the military attaché of the Peace Agreement, two types of violations were mentioned: the first was the size of the forces (transporting forces (transporting forces or weapons) and the second was Infrastructure (building building or bases).
In general, by imposing restrictions on the Egyptian military presence, there is conflict of interests. Israel wants to prevent any real possibility of a military threat on the common border, while Cairo sees restrictions on the deployment of forces as a national insult. Over the years, conflicts arose between the parties related to the Egyptian military presence in Sinai several times. In November 2007, for example, Israel opposed an increase in the share of Egyptian soldiers on the border with Gaza as part of the battle against smuggling from the tape, on the basis that Cairo was not doing enough with the 750 border guards in the region.
This also happened when Egypt was fighting ISIS in Sinai. In 2018, the then chief of staff of the Egyptian army admitted Lieutenant Mohamed Farid Farid Highazi that in Sinai there were 88 Batalion and 42,000 soldiers, although the agreement only allowed 22,000.
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According to an article published in the Israeli magazine “MA'ARACHOT” by Lieutenant Collonel (RS) Eli Dekel, the former head of the target department in the Intelligence Research Department of the Israel Defense Army, until 2007, Egypt had the infrastructure for the bases of 120 battalions, and by general 2021, at least 50 others were added. Therefore, he concluded that during routine operations, three Egyptian sections will be present in the Sinai among about 13 in the entire army. In addition, Dickel indicated that the strength of the tank holder has doubled to 1500.
However, the root of the problem, according to DeFrin, is in violations in the field of military infrastructure. “Since Sisi reached power, there was” crawling “of the infrastructure in the Sinai. Over the years, Israel, along with the United States, presented violations of the infrastructure of officials. According to Egypt, this aims to restore governance on the peninsula. Function is suitable for aircraft The fighter.
Similar claims for building infrastructure on the peninsula were submitted in the Dickel's article. He wrote that in 2016, he began paving the roads leading from the Suez Canal to the Israeli border. A similar step was taken on the Suez-Mitla-NAHAL-EILAT axis, and the Jenipa-Medi Meliz Road has been reformulated. The former officer also wrote that an elaborate military complex was built in the Sinai, including external sites, mines, anti -tank trenches, and a series of external sites that, he said, was aimed at delaying the Israeli Defense Forces forces on their way to the west. And if this is not enough, in 2015, Abdul Fahia Al -Sisi announced a plan to dig seven tunnels under the channel, each of which has about seven and a half.
Cairo's dependence on the United States and the West
Major General (Al -Daqqa), Eitan Dangot, former military secretary of defense ministers, Shoual Mosaz, Amir Peretz and Ehud Barak, are well aware of the sensitivities related to Egypt. It says that due to instability in the Middle East over the past 18 months, it is believed that Israel should expand Egypt's monitoring. “This requires us to address the issue of force use. Among other things, Egypt has been built on Western fighting systems.”
Thus, Dangot turns the spotlight on the United States, for a good reason. Egypt relies heavily on assistance from the United States. There is a large column of Egyptian military progress, which is through American aid, which now suspects the fierce opposition of the Sisi regime of Trump's plan to evacuate Ghazan from the tape. Since 1979, the United States has provided $ 51 billion in aid – only the second to Israel. In 2023 alone, Cairo received $ 1.43 billion from the United States, with $ 1.3 billion from this to military aid and the rest for economic development. Last September, the Biden administration approved $ 1.3 billion of military aid.
Cairo faces a large economic situation: according to the United Nations World Food Program (WFP). The Egyptian pound has lost 84.5 % of its value against the US dollar since January 2016. On the social level, there are many reasons that should be Sisi anxiety: 27.3 % of the population below the poverty line and about 6.7 % not employee. Last year, in an attempt to pump capital in the country, Cairo found a creative solution – selling 170 square kilometers of land in Ras Hakka to the United Arab Emirates for $ 35 billion.
Egypt's economic situation also affects the country's security policy. A security source familiar with the situation there says that Egypt faces three main threats: the first and the main president is from Iran and its Shiite allies, which includes the Houthi rebels, who directly harmed the Egyptian economy during the war. After their attacks, there was a decrease in the number of ships through the Suez Canal – a source of about 2 % of Egypt's gross domestic product to the war. In 2024, the number of ships passed through the channel decreased by more than 50 % to about 13,200, while the daily traffic rate decreased from about 80-75 ships to only 35-32. This bleak situation led to Egypt's annual revenues from the channel by 60.7 % to about 4 billion dollars.
The second threat includes terrorist threats in the region, such as Libya in the East, ISIS and Bedouin tribes in Sinai, which Egypt deals with. The third threat, according to the source of itself, is the potential war with Israel. According to GFP, an international site specializing in comparisons between the armies of the world in various fields, the Israeli Defense Army's advantage over the Egyptian army is mainly present in the Air Force, thanks to the number of F-35 plane in the possession of the Israeli army and its size of the defense budget, while Egypt has an advantage in terms of workforce (12 times qualified for recruitment) and artillery and tanks.
Aircraft from China, ships from Germany
Over the years, Cairo realized that it must diversify the purchase sources and reduce its dependence on Washington, especially after former US President Barack Obama imposed a set of sanctions on Egypt a decade ago.
Lieutenant Colonel (Resolution) Dr. Alia Pinko from the Department of Political Science and the Beginning Center for Strategic Studies at Bar Ilan University, which has been following Egypt's military accumulation about 16 years, says Cairo currently says the purchase of drones and Chinese missiles, French aircraft, German ships and submarines, and weapons Italian.
In addition, the Egyptian army is currently maintaining a large fleet that includes the submarines made by Thyssinkrup in Germany and the submarines it bought from China, amid concerns about the Israeli underwater capabilities. “Egypt has also bought helicopters from France; one of them sits in the Red Sea and one in the Arish, each carrying more than 50 helicopters from the Russian attack. In addition, its officers are taught in high -quality institutions in the United States, such as Annapolis, Likewise in Europe.
Is there a real possibility of conflict?
Will Israel and Egypt go to their first military clash since the 1970s? The experts we spoke to do not exclude it, but they explain this: the opportunities are definitely low. Eitan Dangot explains that despite the complexity and repeated violations by Egypt, it suspects that an attack on Israel is a reasonable step in the short term. “Egypt is a sovereign country, and in this way, it is extremely difficult to create a sudden element, as in the case of Hamas on October 7. The Egyptian attack will contradict an exceptional coordination system with the Israeli Defense Army, which contains improved only during the Sisi era.”
Dr. Pino says similar things, saying that in order to understand the general image of the situation in relation to Egyptian aspirations, the question must be divided into three levels: capabilities, intentions and timing. “In terms of capabilities – Egypt has a much larger army than Israel, which, among other things, possesses cruise missiles with a group of 1700 km. In intentions, I do not think that Egypt has any intention to launch a campaign against Israel, among other things, suffers From a difficult economic situation. Egypt is afraid that the members of Hamas will reach Sinai, of course, with regard to the war, Egypt builds such ability to Israel, and anything can happen in the Middle East. “.
Defrin summarizes that, along with traditional hostility towards Israel, Cairo fears a variety of threats. “Those around them, the Egyptians fear the conflict inside Libya between the government and the government and khalifa Haftar (the leader of the Libyan National Army), and the civil war in Sudan has brought more than a million refugees, which threatens the source of the water in the country, the Nile, and Iran. It harmed foreign trade.
This is alongside data from officials in “Cairo” who spoke to Globes, and claims that there is an attempt to create an event that did not happen and does not happen in their eyes. In Egypt, as the first country in the region reaching a peace agreement with Israel, they still see that the peace agreement as a strategic origin for their interests.
It was published by Globes, Israel Business News – En.globes.co.il – on February 23, 2025.
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