The European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting for May 2023 is today, Thursday, May 4, 2023.
- The decision statement is due at 1215 GMT, which is 0815 EST
- ECB President Lagarde’s press conference comes at 1245 GMT, 0845 EDT.
An update from ABN-Amro on their outlook on what to expect:
Two important economic reports published today, the ECB Bank Lending Survey and the April Inflation Report, comfort us in our view that the ECB will slow the pace of rate hikes to 25bps on May 4th.
The European Central Bank’s Bank Lending Survey (BLS) for the first quarter of 2023 showed that eurozone banks have tightened credit standards on all types of loans.
- Meanwhile, net loan demand by businesses (balance above minus) fell to -38, down from -12 in the fourth quarter, marking the sharpest drop since the first quarter of 2009. Banks also reported a further sharp tightening in benchmarks. Credit on loans to households for home purchases (net tightening 19 after 21 in Q4 2022), while demand for such loans also declined.
Eurozone inflation rose to 7.0% in April, up from 6.9% in March, while the core rate (excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco) fell to 5.6%, down from 5.7% in March.
- We expect headline inflation to fall faster than the core rate this year, with the headline falling below the core rate from mid-year onwards. By the end of the year, headline inflation should be around 2%, while core inflation is expected to be around 3%.
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