By Jonathan Landy, Phil Stewart, and Anthony Deutsch
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Iran has not installed mobile launchers with the short-range ballistic missiles that Washington accused Tehran last week of supplying to Russia for use against Ukraine, three sources familiar with the matter said.
The sources — a European diplomat, a European intelligence official and a US official — said it was unclear why Iran had not supplied Fateh-360 launchers, raising questions about whether and when the weapons would become operational.
The U.S. official, who like the other sources spoke on condition of anonymity, said Iran had not delivered the launchers at the time of the U.S. announcement of the arms transfer. The European intelligence official said they did not expect Iran to deliver the launchers, without elaborating.
Reuters was the first to report Iran’s plan to send missiles to Russia.
Two experts told Reuters there were several reasons why the launchers might not be sent. One is that Russia may be planning to modify the trucks to carry the missiles, as Iran has done. Another is that by withholding the launchers, Iran is creating space for new talks with Western powers to ease tensions.
The Russian Defense Ministry declined to comment.
The National Security Council did not immediately respond to a request for comment, and the Pentagon declined to comment.
Iran’s mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Tehran denies supplying Moscow with missiles or thousands of drones that Kyiv and Western officials say Russia is using to attack military targets and destroy civilian infrastructure, including Ukraine’s power grid.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on September 10 that Iran had delivered Fateh-360 systems to Russia and “will likely use them within weeks in Ukraine.”
The missile would pose an additional challenge to Ukraine, which is constantly adapting its air defenses to Russian innovations. Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency says the missile travels at four times the speed of sound when approaching targets.
Blinken said the missiles threaten European security and will be fired at short-range targets, allowing Russia to devote more of its vast arsenal to targets beyond the front lines. The FAT-360 has a range of 75 miles (121 kilometers).
The United States, Germany, Britain and France have imposed new sanctions on Iran, and the European Union said the bloc was considering new measures targeting Iran’s aviation sector.
The Kremlin at the time refused to confirm that it had received the missiles, but acknowledged that its cooperation with Iran included “the most sensitive areas.”
Blinken did not say how many Fateh-360 missiles Iran has supplied to Russia or when they were sent.
Reuters has found, through shipping data, that the Russian cargo ship subject to US sanctions, the Port Olya 3, made voyages between the Iranian port of Amirabad on the Caspian Sea and the Russian port of Olya several times between May and September 12.
Fabian Hinz, an expert on Iranian missiles at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said he could not confirm that Tehran had refrained from launching missiles.
Ballistic missiles require specially designed launchers to launch them.
According to Heinz, one reason Iran has not sent the missile launchers may be that the civilian trucks Iran has modified to launch these and other missiles are not robust enough to operate in the harsh terrain of Ukraine’s harsh winter. He said Iran is modifying trucks made by Mercedes and other companies and turning them into easily concealable missile launchers.
He added that this indicates that Russia may be able to modify its military vehicles.
“The Mercedes commercial truck is not capable of off-roading,” he said.
David Albright, a former UN nuclear inspector who heads the Institute for Science and International Security, could not determine whether Iran had delivered the launch pads.
But he noted that Iran’s new president, Massoud Pezeshkian, and other Iranian officials will meet with European officials on the sidelines of next week’s U.N. General Assembly in New York to test the potential for diplomacy over Tehran’s nuclear program, regional tensions and other disputes.
“Maybe the reason is that they (Iran) are holding back from firing missiles to create a little space for these talks. One can imagine that if Iranian missiles fell (on Ukraine) it would lead to condemnation in the General Assembly,” he said.
But he expressed skepticism about the possibility of achieving any progress, saying he doubted that Iran would make the necessary concessions.