Written by Samia Nakhoul, Parisa Hafezi and Bisha Majed
DUBAI (Reuters) – Three Gulf sources told Reuters that the Gulf states are pressuring Washington to prevent Israel from attacking Iranian oil sites because they fear that their oil facilities will come under fire from Tehran’s proxies if the conflict escalates.
As part of their attempts to avoid being caught in the crossfire, Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, also refuse to allow Israel to fly over their airspace to launch any attack on Iran, and have informed Washington of this, according to the three sources. People close to government departments said.
Israel promised Iran to pay the price for its missile attack last week, while Tehran said any retaliation would be met with widespread destruction, raising fears of a broader war in the region that could attract the United States.
The Gulf states’ moves come after a diplomatic effort by non-Arab Shiite Iran to persuade its Sunni Gulf neighbors to use their influence with Washington amid growing concerns that Israel may target Iranian oil production facilities.
A senior Iranian official and diplomat told Reuters that Iran warned Saudi Arabia during meetings this week that it could not guarantee the safety of oil facilities in the Kingdom if Israel received any assistance in carrying out an attack.
“The Iranians said: If the Gulf states open their airspace to Israel, it will be an act of war,” said Ali Al-Shehabi, a Saudi analyst close to the Saudi royal court. But (Saudi Arabia) will not do that. Allow anyone to use their airspace.
The diplomat said that Tehran sent a clear message to Riyadh that its allies in countries such as Iraq or Yemen may respond if there is any regional support for Israel against Iran.
Gulf and Iranian sources said that a possible Israeli strike was the focus of the talks that took place on Wednesday between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, who is touring the Gulf to rally support.
A Gulf source close to government departments told Reuters that the Iranian minister’s visit, along with Saudi-American communications at the level of the Ministry of Defense, is part of a coordinated effort to address the crisis.
A person in Washington familiar with the discussions confirmed that Gulf officials had been in contact with their American counterparts to express their concern about the potential scope of the expected Israeli retaliation.
The White House declined to comment when asked whether the Gulf governments asked Washington to ensure that Israel’s response was measured. On Wednesday, US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke about the Israeli response in a call that both sides described as positive.
“Gulf states’ concern will likely be a major talking point with their Israeli counterparts in trying to convince Israel to undertake a military operation,” said Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy US national intelligence officer for the Middle East who now works at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington. Carefully calibrated response.”
Oil in danger?
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, which Saudi Arabia de facto leads, has enough spare oil capacity to offset any loss of Iranian supplies if Israeli retaliation leads to the destruction of some of the country’s facilities.
But much of this excess capacity is in the Gulf region, so if oil facilities in Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates, for example, were targeted, the world could face an oil supply problem.
Saudi Arabia has been concerned about an Iranian strike on its oil plants since the 2019 attack on the Aramco oil field (Tadawul:) that shut down more than 5% of global oil supplies. Iran denied involvement.
Riyadh has witnessed a rapprochement with Tehran in recent years, but trust remains a problem. Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates host U.S. military facilities or forces.
Another Gulf source said that concerns about oil facilities and the potential for a broader regional conflict were also central to the talks between Emirati officials and their American counterparts.
In 2022, the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen fired missiles and drones at refueling trucks near an oil refinery owned by the UAE national oil company ADNOC and claimed responsibility for the attack.
The Gulf source said, “The Gulf states do not allow Israel to use their airspace. They will not allow Israeli missiles to pass, and there is also hope that they will not hit the oil installations.”
The three Gulf sources stressed that Israel could launch strikes through Jordan or Iraq, but using Saudi, Emirati, or Qatari airspace was off the table and not strategically necessary.
Analysts also noted that Israel has other options, including mid-air refueling capabilities, which would enable its planes to fly across the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean, then head to the Gulf and back.
“In the middle of a missile war”
According to senior Israeli officials, Israel will calibrate its response, and as of Wednesday, had not yet decided whether to strike Iranian oil fields.
This option was one of the options presented to Israeli leaders by the defense establishment, according to the officials.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant said on Wednesday: “Our strike will be lethal, precise and above all sudden. They will not understand what happened and how it happened. They will see the results.”
The three Gulf sources said that Saudi Arabia, as a major oil exporter along with its oil-producing neighbors – the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain – has a great interest in calming the situation.
A second Gulf source said, “We will be in the middle of a missile war. There is serious concern, especially if the Israeli strike targets Iranian oil facilities.”
The three Gulf sources said that any Israeli strike on Iranian oil infrastructure would have a global impact, especially on China, the largest consumer of Iranian oil, as well as on Kamala Harris before the presidential elections scheduled for November 5, in which she is competing against Donald Trump.
The first Gulf source said, “If oil prices rise to $120 a barrel, this will harm the American economy and Harris’ chances in the elections. So they (the Americans) will not allow the oil war to expand.”
Gulf sources said that protecting all oil facilities remains a challenge, despite the presence of advanced missile defense systems and Patriot missiles, so the basic approach remained diplomatic: sending a signal to Iran that the Gulf states do not pose any threat.
Bernard Heikal, a professor of Near Eastern studies at Princeton University, noted that Riyadh was at risk “because the Iranians could overrun those facilities given the short distance from the mainland.”