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Sina — professor, consultant, co-founder and COO of 21stCapital.com — predicts that the price of Bitcoin could rise to $285,000 by the end of 2025 in a new analysis shared on X. Using a quantile regression model, Sina identifies distinct phases in a market cycle Bitcoin.
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the model The cold zone (<33%) is defined as the price range between $55,000 and $85,000. This area represents the lowest possible range by the end of 2025 and suggests an ideal period to “accumulate aggressively.”
The warm zone (33-66%), which extends from $85,000 to $136,000, represents a period in which the market is gaining momentum, and mainstream interest is intensifying. During this phase, rapid price growth is expected as the train “departs from the station.” Sina recommends a standard accumulation strategy here, such as dollar cost averaging (DCA), to steadily increase holdings.
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The most important phase, the hot zone (>66%), ranges from $136,000 to $285,000. This area is characterized by extreme volatility and large price swings with mass adoption peaking and leveraged positions becoming common.
While there is plenty of room for upside, the risk of reversals is mounting quickly. Sina advises investors to either hold and enjoy the potential gains or consider gradually exiting positions based on risk assessments, especially since historical highs occur in the 90 to 99 quant range. Notably, the 90 quant starts at $211,000.
What amazes Sina is how seamlessly these 33% quantitative ranges align with Bitcoin’s historical phase shifts. He points out that Bitcoin tends to spend exactly a third of its time in each zone before moving on to the next, just like a clock. This pattern means that most of the bear market occurs below the 33% bracket, while the euphoria of the bull market begins above the 66% bracket.
Popular cryptocurrency analyst PlanC (@TheRealPlanC) acknowledged Sina’s model, commenting that it is a “perfect explanation – very clear.” Sena, in turn, credited PlanC with the foundational work that influenced his model.
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PlanC has also recently It has been updated “Power Law Probability Model,” which forecasts Bitcoin prices to range from $189,733 to $245,264 for the 97% to 99.9% segment, and from $145,182 to $189,733 for the 90% to 97% segment. He asserts that despite appearances, the underlying data follows a power law relationship, no matter how it is plotted – whether linear, log-linear, or logarithmic.
“The data follows a log-log relationship with quantile regressions, whereas a rainbow chart uses log-log regression with a log-linear relationship. (…) I don’t ‘draw’ these lines. These are quantile regressions of the log of price against time,” he explains. “Based on all the data we have so far.”
To contextualize the predictive capabilities of the model, PlanC explains the importance of different quantities. A ratio of 99.9% means that the price has crossed this line only 0.1% of the time, which equates to only 1 day out of every 1,000 days – a very rare event. The 99% quantitative part indicates that the price has crossed this line 1% of the time, or 1 day out of every 100 days, which is also rare. Conversely, a ratio of 0.1% reflects that the price fell below this line only 0.1% of the time.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $67,121.
Featured image created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com