Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook doesn’t fear losing her job to robots anytime soon. Speaking at a luncheon at the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday, Cook said that when you’re a central banker, every word counts in a way that not only surprised her at first but will likely surprise AI for a long time. sometimes.
“Every word is disputed,” Cook said, drawing laughter from the audience. “I don’t think AI will replace us in that sense, in the short term.”
For example, Cook talked about a recent report in which she had to choose between using the word “modest” or “moderate,” explaining that the choice led to a lot of “burning” in her office. Although the comment prompted laughter from the audience, she also explained that the Fed is currently looking into how third-party vendors use artificial intelligence.
Earlier today, the Bank for International Settlements He said Central banks needed to prepare for the “profound” impact on the economy and financial system from AI. In January, the International Monetary Fund predicted that advanced economies with more high-skilled jobs would see the greatest impacts from AI, with up to 60% of jobs affected. And in the month of February The New York Times It stated that banks and other financial institutions would be disproportionately affected, with up to 80% of jobs being changed or eliminated entirely.
“On a bumpy road”
Cook, who joined the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in May 2022 and was reappointed last September to a term expiring in 2038, also addressed the economy more generally. Speaking from prepared remarks, she forecast that three- and six-month inflation figures would continue to fall “on a bumpy path” resulting from consumer resistance to price increases. Last month, the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers remained unchanged at 3.3% unchanged.
Cook also said that 12-month inflation numbers will move “almost” sideways for the rest of this year, and the monthly data will likely be similar to what she described as “positive readings” during the second half of last year. After starting 2023 at 6.4%, inflation fell to 3% in June before slowly rising to 4.1% by the end of the year. The inflation rate currently stands at 3.3%.
Going into next year, Cook expects inflation to slow “sharply”, with housing prices likely to fall as more people sign new leases.
Regarding jobs from the Fed’s dual mandate, Cook said the labor market has “largely returned to a better fit between supply and demand,” despite unemployment increasing from 3.9% in April to 4% in May. Overall, the job market is closer to what it was before the pandemic: tight but not overheated. “We have seen nearly 30 consecutive months of an unemployment rate of 4% or less, and in recent history, that is a record high.”