The future is not a mystery.
Generative AI is coming for almost everything.
Why? Machines will soon be able to see, hear and interact with the world in real time. This will unlock robotics.
That’s why Elon Musk decided to turn Tesla into a robotics company. He realized that building robots to work in a closed factory would be easier than building cars to work on chaotic streets. The main challenge would be building the robots and finding the raw materials (steel, aluminum, copper, etc.) to build them.
It’s coming quickly and I think markets and almost everyone are suffering from normalcy bias and normalcy paralysis. This is a cognitive bias where people underestimate the likelihood of a disaster or catastrophic event occurring.
The easiest way to envision this, I think, is that unemployment will rise to 20%, even in the strongest markets. Jensen Huang is trying to warn us as he said earlier this week that AI is coming for heavy industries.
Also this week there is a warning that agent AI will take jobs.
I don’t know why people ignore this or assume they know better than the guy who built the largest company in the world.
How will things develop? At first companies’ margins will rise dramatically as the number of workers gradually reduces, but over time demand will decline because people will not have money to spend. Labor prices will collapse as the number of workers increases, leading to unemployment rates rising to 20%. The political consequences are unknown but undoubtedly messy.