Written by Mimosa Spencer
PARIS (Reuters) – French voters went to the polls on Sunday in the first round of a snap parliamentary election that could produce the country’s first far-right government since World War Two and mark a major change at the heart of the European Union.
President Emmanuel Macron surprised the country when he called for a vote after Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party crushed his centrist coalition in this month’s European elections. Her anti-EU, anti-immigrant party has long been a pariah, but is now closer to power than ever before.
Polls opened at 0600 GMT and will close at 1600 GMT in small cities and towns, with voting ending at 1800 GMT in major cities, where the first exit polls and seat predictions in the crucial second round are expected. after a week.
But the electoral system may make it difficult to estimate the exact distribution of seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, and the final result will not be known until the end of voting on July 7.
“We will win with an absolute majority,” Le Pen said in a press interview on Wednesday, predicting that her student, 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, would become prime minister. Her party implements a high-spending economic program and seeks to limit immigration.
“It’s shameful, it’s shameful,” a woman shouted as Bardella arrived to vote in Garches, near Paris. “They even invited leftists,” he added.
If the National Front wins an absolute majority, French diplomacy could head into an unprecedented period of turmoil: with Macron – who has said he will continue as president until the end of his term in 2027 – and Bardella vying for the right to speak on his behalf. France.
France has had three periods of “cohabitation”—when the president and government were from opposing political camps—in its post-World War II history, but none of them were characterised by such radically different worldviews competing at the top of the state.
Bardella has already indicated that he will challenge Macron on global issues. France may transform from being a pillar of the European Union to a thorn in its side, demanding a reduction in the French contribution to the European Union budget, clashing with Brussels over jobs in the European Commission, and mirroring Macron’s calls for greater unity in the European Union and firmness in the field of defense.
A clear win for the National Front would raise uncertainty about France’s position on the war between Russia and Ukraine. Le Pen has a history of pro-Russian sentiment, and while the party now says it will help Ukraine defend itself against Russian invaders, it has also set red lines, such as refusing to provide long-range missiles.
In Henin-Beaumont, a town in Le Pen’s northern French constituency where she could be re-elected in the first round, 67-year-old Denis Ledue said people were suffering because of the region’s long-term deindustrialization.
“So if the Royal Navy promises them things, why not? I think they want to try it.”
Across France, early participation numbers were higher than in the 2022 legislative vote, standing at 25.9% by midday, compared with 18.43% two years ago, the Interior Ministry said.
“Vote split in favour of the National Front”
Opinion polls indicated that the National Rally Party was leading by a comfortable margin of 33% to 36% of the popular vote, with a hastily formed leftist coalition, the New Popular Front, in second place with 28% to 31%, and Macron’s centrist coalition in third place. By 20% versus 23%.
The New Popular Front includes a wide range of parties, from the moderate center-left to the hard-left Eurosceptic and anti-NATO party Rebel France, led by one of Macron’s fiercest opponents, Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
Vincent Martini, a professor of political science at the University of Nice and the École Polytechnique, said it is difficult to predict how opinion poll numbers will translate into seats in the National Assembly because of how elections work.
Candidates can be elected in the first round if they win an absolute majority of votes in their constituency, but this is rare. Most electoral districts will need a runoff featuring all candidates who received votes from at least 12.5% of registered voters in the first round. The one with the highest number of votes wins.
“If you have a very high level of participation, you may have a third or fourth party that enters the struggle. So, of course, there is a risk of splitting the vote, and we know that the split vote is in favour of the National Rally,” Martini said.
For decades, as the far right has steadily gained popularity, voters and parties who did not support it have united against it whenever it has come closer to national power, but that may not be true this time.
Martini said that no one knows whether candidates from Macron’s camp will consider withdrawing from the second round to give rivals from the left a chance to win against the National Rally, or vice versa.
Le Pen and Bardella have sought to make their party more mainstream, for example by denouncing anti-Semitism. Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, the founder and former leader of the French National Party, has a history of making explicitly anti-Semitic comments.
But critics say the National Front’s courtship of Jews is merely a cover that allows it to deny accusations of racism while continually stigmatizing Muslims and foreigners.