Written by Lee Thomas
PARIS (Reuters) – French Prime Minister Michel Barnier has tasked a little-known duo with plugging a huge budget hole, putting loyalty before political influence in the job descriptions of his finance and budget ministers.
After weeks of anticipation, Barnier unveiled his cabinet lineup late Saturday, choosing junior MP Antoine Armand, 33, to take over the prestigious economy and finance ministry.
Barnier also appointed Laurent Saint-Martin, 39, head of the government office that promotes foreign investment in France, as budget minister, putting him directly under his supervision rather than the finance ministry, in a break with tradition.
The two, little known outside Paris political circles, face enormous pressure to figure out how to control France’s budget deficit, which is heading towards 6% of GDP due to a tax shortfall and higher-than-planned spending.
Despite their lack of political heft, economists say they face little risk of jeopardizing President Emmanuel Macron’s legacy of tax cuts and pro-business reforms — if they can pass the 2025 budget.
“It’s a way of maintaining policy continuity, they are loyal and will follow Emmanuel Macron’s political line,” said economist Matthieu Blanc of the OFCE economics research centre.
Armand is a relative newcomer to politics, having served as an MP for Macron’s party since 2022, while Saint-Martin has served only one term, failing to win a second term in 2022.
It remains unclear who will take the lead in steering the 2025 budget bill through the deeply divided French parliament, where they can expect a tough ride from opposition parties who may join forces and vote through a no-confidence vote, potentially bringing down Barnier’s government.
The French Minister of Finance and Economy usually drafts budget legislation and directs it through Parliament, with the Budget Minister in a secondary role to settle problems.
In any case, it will fall to Armand to defend the government’s budget choices in Brussels, where France’s EU partners are unlikely to show much sympathy for Paris, which is once again asking for more time to cut its budget deficit.
“You will not find in my desk drawer any magic solutions for public finances, only strong detailed proposals to cut spending,” outgoing Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, one of France’s most experienced politicians, told Armand at a handover ceremony on Sunday.
Armand will have the difficult task of representing France in international forums such as the G7 and G20, where he will share the stage with more experienced policymakers such as US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
high risk budget
Armand and San Martin will have to work around the clock to complete the 2025 budget bill, which typically takes months to prepare and is due to be delivered to lawmakers by Oct. 1, though there may be some flexibility.
Although Treasury officials have already done a lot of the hard work, they will have to figure out how to balance tax increases and spending cuts in a way that doesn’t provoke a political backlash.
Although the outgoing government has opposed rolling back Macron’s broader tax cuts, it has left behind proposals to raise taxes on energy companies and impose a tax on share buybacks by large companies.
The broader tax hikes are likely to face opposition from the far-right National Rally party and Barnier’s conservative Les Républicains party, while Barnier said on Sunday that the wealthiest taxpayers would have to pay more.
However, the brunt of the effort to narrow the budget deficit will come from unpopular spending cuts, which are likely to amount to around 20 billion to 30 billion euros ($22 billion to $34 billion) depending on how quickly the government decides to reduce the deficit, according to Treasury calculations.
While Armand and Saint-Martin are considering tax increases and spending cuts, Barnier and Macron will be watching closely over their shoulders, OFCE’s Blanc said.
“It is a guarantee that what has been achieved so far was not unintended,” he added.
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