GBPUSD Technical Analysis – Awaiting a breakout

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed
  three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth
  and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.
• Fed Chair Powell
  maintained a neutral stance as he said that it was premature to react to the
  recent inflation data given possible bumps on the way to their 2% target.
• The US CPI and
  the US PPI beat
  expectations for the second consecutive month.
• The US Jobless Claims beat
  expectations.
• The latest US Manufacturing
  PMI
  beat expectations while the Services PMI missed slightly. Both the measures
  remain in expansion though.
• The US Consumer
  Confidence missed expectations although the labour
  market details improved.
• The market expects the first rate cut in June.

GBP

• The BoE left interest rates unchanged as expected but with Haskel and
  Mann this time voting for a hold instead of a hike.
• The employment report missed expectations with an uptick
  in the unemployment rate and an easing in wage growth.
• The UK CPI missed expectations across the board but with
  Services inflation remaining sticky, which continues to support the BoE’s
  patient stance.
• The latest UK PMIs showed the Services PMI missing expectations
  slightly and the Manufacturing PMI beating.
• The market expects the first rate
  cut in June.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that GBPUSD has been
consolidating around the 1.26 handle as the market awaits key catalysts next
week to push it in either direction. Today it’s the Good Friday holiday, so
liquidity will be thinner, and we can expect mostly a rangebound price action
until the US PCE release which will likely move the market.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price is now
ranging between the 1.2580 support and the
1.2660 resistance. There’s not much do here other than “playing the range” by
buying at support and selling at resistance. The buyers will want to see the
price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 1.28 resistance,
while the sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in more
aggressively for a drop into the 1.25 handle.

GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the rangebound price action between the key levels with the 1.2612
level acting as kind of barometer for the sentiment with the market being more
bullish above the level and more bearish below it.

Upcoming Events

Today we conclude the week with the US PCE and Fed
Chair Powell.