The Bitcoin community has been eagerly awaiting the start of a new bull market especially after the last halving that took place in April, however, according to the latest analysis According to CryptoQuant analyst under the pseudonym Onchained, that moment has yet to come and there is a reason for that.
In a post uploaded to CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, Onchained’s analysis focused on Mourad’s Long-Term Hold (LTH) ratio, a proprietary indicator that tracks UTXOs (unspent transaction outputs) that have been held for more than six months.
This ratio essentially helps gauge market sentiment and accumulation trends among long-term Bitcoin holders, providing valuable insights into when Bitcoin might enter its next bullish phase.
Stability in the Murad ratio for long-term bondholders
One of the key indicators highlighted in the analysis is the stability of the long-term Murad ratio. Historically, when this ratio remains stable, it indicates that the market is not yet ready for a major upward move.
Onchained explains that a bull market usually only starts when the ratio starts to deviate negatively from these stable levels. Currently, the data shows that the LTH Mourad ratio is flat, indicating that Bitcoin’s bull run has not yet begun.
This stability in the ratio, as revealed by the analyst, indicates that long-term shareholders have not yet been able to make significant price movements in the market, and investors may need to be patient until more favorable conditions arise.
For more context, the Murad ratio is calculated by dividing the current Murad transaction value to its long-term holder (LTH MCTV) by the current Bitcoin price.
This calculation provides insight into the average value of UTXOs that are older than six months, giving a clearer picture of recent accumulation trends among BTC holders over the longer term.
Technical data suggests that a Bitcoin price rally is not too far away.
While Onchained’s analysis confirmed that the Bitcoin price rally has not yet begun, other analysts have turned to the historical price chart to gauge when the Bitcoin price rally could begin from a technical perspective.
The popular Bitcoin insight platform known as Bitcoin archive on X has recently been launched. Spotlight Bitcoin is about to make a “bullish crossover on the 5-day chart for the first time in 230 days.”
According to Bitcoin Archive, the last two times this has happened, BTC has risen by 79% and 74%, so if this happens again, Bitcoin could surge above $100,000.
Bitcoin MACD is about to make a bullish crossover on the 5-day chart for the first time in 230 days.
Bitcoin price has risen by 79% and 74% in the last two days.
#Bitcoin Prices will rise to over $100,000 if this happens again. pic.twitter.com/USTaCzHD44
— Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive) September 25, 2024
Featured image created using DALL-E, chart from TradingView