Many American enthusiasts in Kenya were watching the election with keen interest, whether they were students of international relations, diplomacy, or foreign policy, teachers, practitioners, or experts.
This is a continuation of the general analysis of US-Kenya relations in the wake of President William Ruto’s trip to America hosted by President Joe Biden, during which the country secured important agreements on various issues, as well as great fanfare and celebration.
The question remains for many: How will a Trump presidency affect Kenyan gains in its relationship with America?
To understand this, Kenyans must understand that the Republican Party has witnessed an evolution of the “Make America Great Again” agenda.
“Original MAGA” was supported by the “alt-right” movement led by wealthy people, such as Steve Bannon whose predominantly white American politics led to the infamous attack on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021.
Currently, the Republican Party draws its strength from the “New Right” promoted by the likes of J.D. Vance, whose thinking on populist national conservative politics takes a more nationwide approach, going beyond white people as described in “Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and Culture “In crisis.
The political appeal of national conservatism lies in the perception that Americans are simple people facing enormous challenges in the institutions they love most such as family, community, and pride in their work.
These elections were the first step in addressing all the losses they faced in these areas.
These Americans therefore need security, and therefore the constant nuance advocated by liberals poses a threat to them, as they lose out to technological progress as well as other effects of globalization.
From this standpoint, the United States must think of itself first. Subsequently, a United States governing under a second administration of Donald Trump will have a different worldview or threat matrix regarding global relations in these times of multiple crises.
This version of “MAGA Light” means that America is concerned first with its territorial integrity, second with energy security as well as technological dominance, and third with economic prosperity within its borders for most of its voters as defined by this national conservatism.
Four ways
Africa is therefore viewed in four ways within this worldview. Firstly, as a springboard for terrorism in the wake of Al-Qaeda that has fueled instability in North and West Africa, secondly as an area of geopolitical competition against China in East Africa, and thirdly as an opportunity for energy partnerships in southern Africa.
Finally, Africa is seen as an important development partner in promoting democracy, trade or human rights, free from culture wars over attitudes on abortion or lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and intersex (LGBTQI) rights.
State and non-state actors in Kenya will have to come to terms with the reality of serious renewal of USAID, thereby shifting the focus of interactions, programming, and even procurement.
USAID has a nearly 60-year presence in the country to promote or improve access to education, health care, economic development, and to support devolution among other forms of partnership whose content will change under the new Trump administration.
Such a change, as highlighted in the Heritage Foundation’s Leadership Mandate: A Conservative Promise known as the Project 2025 Statement, would move USAID toward linking aid directly to foreign policy interests and countering China’s development posture in the region.
It will also rethink helping advance issues of diversity, equality and inclusion, promoting gender equality as “family-centred” alongside the protection of life at conception, as well as supporting international religious freedom.
This type of concept will then manifest itself in a different perspective in service delivery programming, which will also be subject to different partnerships or purchases for efficiency as mentioned by some tech billionaires like Elon Musk who supported Trump.
The writer is the CEO of the International Relations Society of Kenya (IRSK) and the Regional Coordinator of the East African Taxation and Governance Network (EATGN). @lenwanyama