How many Israelis left Israel last year? A Globes survey of all the bodies that monitor the numbers (the Israel Tax Authority, the Population and Immigration Authority, the National Insurance Institute, and the Central Bureau of Statistics) revealed that none of them really know the answer. What’s more, even when it comes to basic statistics on the number of people entering and leaving Israel, there appear to be large gaps between the Population and Immigration Authority, which collects the data, and the Central Bureau of Statistics, which receives the data from it later.
The simplest way to understand how many people have left the country is to look at the statistics on Israelis’ arrivals and departures. If someone leaves Israel and does not return within a certain period of time, it is highly likely that he or she has left for good, or at least for a long time. So a simple comparison of Israeli departures and arrivals is bound to lead to conclusions. But even with regard to these numbers, there are discrepancies between the Population and Immigration Authority and the Central Bureau of Statistics.
Looking at the Population and Immigration Authority figures, which have only been partially disclosed (the authority pointed out to Globes that a freedom of information request could be submitted), and the Central Bureau of Statistics figures for the period July-October 2023, there is a huge gap between the two groups. According to the Central Bureau of Statistics, the number of arrivals exceeded the number of departures by about 90,000, while according to the Population and Immigration Authority the trend is the opposite, with the number of departures exceeding the number of arrivals by 554. However, since the beginning of 2024, the gaps between the two agencies have been much smaller, amounting to only a few thousand.
Methodological problems
But where did this gap come from? This remains a mystery, especially since the source data for both agencies is the same. Every person who passes through border checkpoints, such as Ben Gurion Airport, whether on his or her way in or out, is registered by the Population and Immigration Authority, which sends the data to the Central Bureau of Statistics. So a gap of several thousand between the two agencies is strange. The Population and Immigration Authority insists that it is the most reliable and accurate source of the figures, while the Central Bureau of Statistics claims the opposite. Globes has learned that the Central Bureau of Statistics has contacted the Population and Immigration Authority to reconcile the figures, but has so far received no response.
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Israelis leaving Israel does not necessarily mean they are leaving the country. Among these numbers are Israelis who travel abroad on vacation, or who move elsewhere for a short period. In fact, the definition of leaving the country is quite flexible. In fact, the Central Bureau of Statistics is aware of this, and only recently changed its method of determining whether someone has left the country.
Until now, a stay abroad for 365 consecutive days was sufficient to consider a person to have left Israel. But a study by the Central Bureau of Statistics found that this statistic was unreliable, because sometimes it was a visit to the person’s country of origin, and there were other circumstances that might necessitate a long stay abroad, while on the other hand, a person who had permanently left the country might return to visit his family within a 365-day period. Thus, in an attempt to adopt standards accepted around the world, the Central Bureau of Statistics announced a few months ago that it was shifting “from a consecutive approach to one that allows for short visits,” as it put it.
Dr. Ahmad Hlehel, director of the Central Bureau of Statistics’ demographics division, said in February that the methodological change raised the figure for the number of Israelis who left the country at the time of the 2022 census (compared to the original census figures) to about 105,000, or 1.1 percent of the population. According to the Central Bureau of Statistics, another 60,000 Israelis left in 2023, compared with an average of 40,000 over the decade until then, while 47,000 new immigrants arrived that year. “The difference is huge,” Hlehel said. “In a year and seven months, there were about 150,000 fewer Israelis than there would have been under the old method of calculation.”
Hard to measure
The National Insurance Institute and the Israel Tax Authority are also tasked with monitoring the number of people leaving Israel, from the standpoint of residency terminations. The National Insurance Institute has not yet released figures for residency terminations in the past year, but said that these are not the same as those for people leaving the country, and that sometimes it is a practical matter of taxation only. “This is an event that relates to national insurance rights,” he said. “A person whose center of life is not in Israel may choose to retain his residency status for health insurance purposes, for example. Or vice versa: If someone leaves the country even just to study, he can terminate his residency status.” The Israel Tax Authority chose not to respond to our inquiries, but it also handles legal questions regarding a person’s center of life for tax purposes.
Out-migration is difficult to measure, and other countries face challenges in doing so. One reason is that a person who is no longer in his or her country of origin cannot respond to surveys in that country. A decade ago, the U.S. Census Bureau published a paper outlining different approaches to examining out-migration, and it recognized that out-migration is one of the most difficult components of population change to estimate.
Responses
The Central Bureau of Statistics responded by saying: “The Central Bureau of Statistics routinely publishes data on emigration from Israel (Israelis abroad) that includes the number of residents who left Israel for a year or more in a row to go abroad. The data is based on recording the movements of Israelis across borders. Recognizing the importance of the data to the public, the Central Bureau of Statistics is currently examining information regarding Israelis who spent time abroad since October 7 for an extended period (even though a year has not yet passed since the start of the war).
“The processing of the data is complex, and the Bureau will publish it as soon as possible. It is important to note that the Central Bureau of Statistics publishes official statistics, and does not comment on data published by other agencies. At the same time, it should be noted that discrepancies in figures from different agencies may arise for various reasons, such as differences in definitions, the period concerned, or the timing of data collection.”
The National Insurance Institute said: “We examine the residency (not citizenship) of those whose center of life is in Israel for the purpose of granting rights and ensuring that social welfare payments and grants are provided to residents and not to those who have moved their center of life abroad.”
The Population and Migration Authority stated: “The data of the Authority forms the basis for many agencies and a range of processing operations. The data is intended for those who pass through border control only. A simple and clear number. Any other interpretation is not our responsibility.”
The Israeli Tax Authority declined to respond.
This article was published in Globes, Israeli Business News – en.globes.co.il – on July 8, 2024.
© Copyright Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd., 2024.