Barclays talks about Japan’s “digital deficit”, i.e. payments to overseas technology companies like Netflix and Amazon.
Analysts say it has become too big for trade and travel in the country’s current account balance and its continued expansion will put pressure on the yen.
- It reached 4.8 trillion yen ($34.7 billion) last year, nearly 90% of Japan’s services account deficit.
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“This digital deficit appears to reflect a structural change in consumer and business behavior, which indicates that it will continue.”
- “This means increasing yen selling pressure.”
but. Barclays folks say they expect increased inbound tourism to Japan to counteract the weakness this year. Besides the decline in commodity prices and their expectations that the Bank of Japan will adjust its policy, they predicted that the USD/JPY would reach 123 in the first quarter of 2024.
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Information via Bloomberg (portals). It is not uncommon for media reports of such developments to ring a coup (at least in the short term).