- Core inflation at 0.4% month-on-month exceeded the
expected 0.3%, reducing the likelihood of a June Fed rate cut. - Market expectations for a June cut fell sharply from 15 basis points to just 5.5bp following the inflation report.
- A June cut would likely require payroll growth near 100k and core CPI at 0.2% in the next reports.
- The core CPI’s slight exceedance of expectations is still double the pace needed for a 2% annual inflation target.
- Given
current inflation trends, a Fed rate cut before September is improbable,
capping potential cuts at three for the year. - Supercore services led inflation increases, with notable rises in medical care and transport services, while some categories like vehicles and airline fares saw price drops.
This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.