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Speculations around The Bitcoin bull market is over It was popular in the cryptocurrency market, especially since the price failed to reach March’s all-time high of over $73,000. To provide a more convincing case for this narrative, one cryptocurrency analyst has released a report Bitcoin bear case A scenario that could see the leading cryptocurrency fall to $28,000.
Bitcoin Bear Status Detected
In X (formerly Twitter) mailCryptocurrency analyst and position trader Bob Lucas unveiled the “Bitcoin Drop Case,” unveiling an unconventional case and more Bearish scenario for Bitcoin than most analysts suggested. Basing his bearish scenarios on cycle theory, Lucas suggests that Bitcoin may be part of a broader 16-year cycle, with the current market representing the final four-year phase of this cycle.
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The analyst suggested that this four-year phase could end in two ways – the distribution phase, where Peak prices Then the decline, or bull phase, where Bitcoin experiences a final rise before the downturn begins. Lucas revealed at the time Course directions It can help predict or provide insight into future price movements of a cryptocurrency, and emphasizes that the “law of non-force” ensures that the price of an asset will continually rise.
The analyst aims to desensitize investors to the belief that Bitcoin will be forever bullish without any pullbacks. He confirms that A Bear cycle It is inevitable at some point, although the timing remains uncertain.
Lucas identified specific price movements in his Bitcoin chart that can serve as an indicator Bearish signalWhich indicates a possible decline. The analyst expects this Bitcoin may fall to new lows About $28,500 by 2026. He also predicted that after a period of volatility consisting of Price drops And highs, the cryptocurrency could rise again to $59,500 by 2027.
For greater clarity, Lucas proposed a narrative, suggesting that if Bitcoin closes below the 10-month moving average (MA) during “Bull market“, that would be a cause for concern. Likewise, a monthly close below $58,800 could signal the beginning of a potential downward spiral.
The cryptocurrency analyst estimated the probability of this bearish scenario occurring at 10% to 15%, stressing that it is a possibility and not a certainty. He explained that while he believed Current market cycle Leaning towards a more bullish scenario based on historical evidence, he is always considering alternative scenarios. This approach is likely due to the inherent unpredictability of the cryptocurrency market Notorious fluctuations.
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The analyst sees retail activity fueling BTC’s downtrend
While revealing the Bitcoin decline scenario, Lucas revealed that broader interest in cryptocurrencies outside of Bitcoin has waned significantly. He revealed that there is a shortage of new retail investors, and this Weaken enthusiasm It could pose a serious challenge for Bitcoin to generate new capital for growth.
According to Lucas, Lack of interest from retail investors It may stem from a shift in emotions. The embrace of cryptocurrencies has dwindled to mere speculation, and fewer people believe in their transformative potential.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com