Israel and Turkey Are Shaping a New Syria From Their Borderlands

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(Bloomberg) — Syria’s leadership isn’t the only aspect of the country changing as a result of the ouster of dictator Bashar al-Assad this month. Its borders are also being blurred – from Israel to the southwest and Turkey to the north.

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The Israeli army wasted no time in advancing towards Syria after Assad was overthrown by Islamist-led fighters two weeks ago, as forces moved east to a buffer zone created by a ceasefire between the two countries 50 years ago. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is concerned about a new threat after more than a year of fighting against the Iranian-backed Hamas and Hezbollah groups in the region.

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Netanyahu’s office said last week that “Israel will not allow jihadist groups to fill this void and threaten Israeli communities.” She described this deployment as temporary until the new Syrian administration – now led by Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham, a former branch of Al-Qaeda – adheres to the 1974 agreement, she said.

Turkey has shown similar urgency in asserting its influence over a much larger portion of Syria, and US President-elect Donald Trump has described the country as a key player in shaping the post-Assad political landscape.

One of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s main priorities is to fend off Kurdish groups in the north with links to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), an organization that has long fought to establish an autonomous Kurdish region within Turkey.

The Syrian National Army, a group funded and advised by Ankara, has seized two northwestern towns since late November from the Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish ally in the US war against ISIS. Turkish officials familiar with the matter said this week that the Syrian National Army was now likely to try to seize more territory.

Erdogan’s ultimate goal is to create a buffer zone along the 900-kilometre (560-mile) Syrian-Turkish border, although this entire goal appears difficult to achieve. Türkiye says Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham supports the dismantling of Kurdish forces, although Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham has not commented publicly.

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The Israeli advance has expanded its control over the Golan Heights – a piece of high ground that has been the focus of a global dispute since Israel captured it from Syria during the 1967 war.

Before the fall of Assad, Israel controlled about two-thirds of the territory, giving its army a view of southern Syria between the border and the capital, Damascus, 60 kilometers away, which enabled it to monitor troop movements. The Golan provides fertile land – Israelis grow grapes and apples there – and is an important source of water.

While Trump officially recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan territories during his first term in 2019, the United Nations still considers them a legal part of Syria.

Dolan Abu Salah is the head of the council in Majdal Shams, a village in the Israeli-controlled part of the Golan that is home to about 12,000 Druze, a Middle Eastern religious and ethnic group. He says the IDF’s advance is widely welcomed by the local community and is seen as a necessary security measure.

Abu Salah (46 years old) said in the town located at the foot of Mount Hermon and surrounded by orchards that the fall of Assad “was a source of very great happiness for the people here and the Druze population in the Golan.” But “establishing a security zone is very important for the communities of the Golan Heights.”

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In response to a question about whether Israel’s seizure of new lands should become permanent, the Council President said that it depends on the new Syrian leadership and “the possibility of peace.”

“If we see that the new regime is potentially another terrorist group that will set the agenda, then the security zone should be permanent,” Abu Salah said.

Majdal Shams was caught up in Israel’s battles with Iranian-backed militias in July, when twelve children were killed and more than 20 others wounded in a missile attack. Israel blamed the attack on Hezbollah, based across the border from the Golan in Lebanon.

Nabih Al-Halabi, a Majdal Shams resident who works on solar energy projects, said he was optimistic about reaching a stronger post-Assad Israeli-Syrian peace agreement, but sympathized with Israel’s caution.

“I can understand their concerns — they want to protect their borders,” he said. He added: “They want to make sure of the stability of the new regime in Damascus and whether they will sign the peace agreement.”

Turkish role

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Wednesday that the “last thing” the nation wants is to be seen as the regional power with ultimate control over Syria, even though the government has made contacts with Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and its leader Ahmed al-Shara, as well as making military gains. In the north.

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Fidan said: “We recognize the current administration, the new administration, as a legitimate partner of Turkey and international interlocutors.” “I think Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham has taken significant steps to separate itself from al-Qaeda, ISIS and other extremist elements,” he said, using an alternative name for the Islamic State.

Ankara has a strong incentive to secure influence over how Syria is ultimately governed. Turkey hosts more than 3 million refugees from its southern neighbor – a legacy of more than 13 years of war – while Turkish companies will be the main beneficiaries if and when post-war reconstruction begins.

“Ankara will look to shape the political and economic landscape in Syria to expand Turkish interests,” Eurasia Group analysts, including Emre Becker, wrote. “A good outcome in Syria for Turkey would help Erdogan project himself as an influential global leader and boost his historically low popularity.”

-With assistance from Beryl Akman and Julius Domoni.

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