Israel Boasts Strategic Gains From Attack on Iran, But Quietly

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(Bloomberg) — After sending more than 100 fighter jets to attack Iran, the Israeli government is seeking to walk a fine line: Officials there believe the attack caused significant strategic damage but want to let Iran continue to reject it as unworthy of a response.

Israeli officials were ordered to remain silent about the details. However, at a ceremony to mourn the losses caused by the Hamas invasion on October 7, 2023, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised the mission to Iran because it “severely damaged its defense capabilities and its ability to produce the missiles that will be fired at us.”

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He added that the strike “was accurate and powerful” and “achieved all its objectives.”

A transcript of Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s overnight phone call with his US counterpart Lloyd Austin said they discussed “preliminary assessments regarding the success of strikes against missile manufacturing facilities, surface-to-air missile systems and Iranian air capabilities,” shedding more official light. On goals.

Israeli officials, who spoke to Bloomberg on the condition of anonymity to describe sensitive matters, provided more details: They said some of the targets were anti-aircraft systems, including Russian-made S-300 batteries and some missile bunkers and missile launch sites.

Analysts say Saturday’s mission could pave the way for another attack, perhaps after the US election, that could target Iran’s nuclear program or oil infrastructure.

“The fact that the military was able to shoot down Iranian anti-aircraft radar systems is a strategic change. By doing so, Israel opened the door to future attacks. This means that the Iranian nuclear program Its energy infrastructure is more vulnerable to a future decision by Israel or the United States to attack them.

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Meanwhile, CIA Director William Burns is in Qatar with Mossad Chief David Barnea, who is leading the Israeli delegation, for new ceasefire discussions with Hamas in Gaza.

A former Israeli intelligence official told Bloomberg that he believes Iran possesses between 20 and 30 S-300 batteries. Even if only some were shot down – media reports circulated estimates of between four and eight batteries – this was a clear message that more might be destroyed in future attacks. It will be difficult to renew the S-300 system given Russia’s need to prioritize its defenses in its war with Ukraine.

Eyal Benko, a former naval intelligence officer and missile expert, said China has made its own version of the S-300 system and will likely provide it to Iran soon.

Even if Russia had the capacity to replace these systems, perhaps with more advanced S-400 batteries, it would have to consider repercussions such as an increase in US and Israeli weapons to Ukraine, Javaidanfar said.

This feeds into a larger idea that the Israeli attack on Saturday, while not demonstrating its full capabilities, could have far-reaching implications.

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This includes striking Iran’s ballistic missile manufacturing capabilities, including a plant for mixing solid fuel components for missile engines. The former intelligence official said he believes this represents a major bottleneck in missile production. The machines can be replaced, mainly via China, but that will take time because they are an off-the-shelf product.

“It is not clear what percentage of Iranian capabilities have been hit in terms of missile production,” Javidanfar said. But the fact that they were struck sends a very important message to Iran about how accessible the nerve center of its military production facilities is to Israel. “If they are sidelined for a year or two, that clearly means we can hurt you.”

Beyond the actual damage, analysts say the scale of the operation was a strong signal in itself.

It included a group of more than 100 aircraft that were capable of striking a significant distance from the Israeli border and returning home safely, clear intelligence gathered by Israel and its allies, and close cooperation between Israel and the United States, which was demonstrated in Israel’s ability to fly over Iraq, among other things. .

This will also play a role in Iran’s decision on how to respond, the former intelligence official said.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said on Sunday that the Israeli attack should neither be exaggerated nor downplayed.

Khamenei said in Tehran, without going into details: “The Zionist regime’s miscalculations must be disabled.” He added that Iran’s strength, determination and initiative “must be clear to them.”

-With assistance from Dan Williams.

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