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Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
Every leader has their blind spots. In Joe Biden’s case, his seeming indifference to Palestinians could prove costly. Ten thousand Palestinian children have been killed in the past 100 days, according to Save the Children. Yet Biden’s statement last Sunday calling on Hamas to release its 100 or so hostages made next to no reference to Palestinian suffering. It is as though acknowledgment of their plight would cast doubt on his heartfelt sympathy for the Israeli victims of Hamas’s barbaric rampage on October 7. Many younger Americans, whose enthusiasm Biden will badly need in November, are alienated. That is not to mention Arab-Americans, who are a key voting bloc in several swing states.
It is not only progressive Democrats who are upset about Biden’s muteness on Israel’s heavy-handedness. Several of his most trusted allies in the US Senate are also disturbed. In Davos this week, Chris Coons, the centrist senator from Delaware, and Biden’s closest friend in politics, said that America should consider putting conditions on military aid to Israel. In Coons’s tempered language, that is the equivalent of a broadside. In a letter to Biden before Christmas, a group of Democrats with national security backgrounds, including Abigail Spanberger and Elissa Slotkin — both former CIA employees — urged him to use America’s leverage for “an immediate and significant shift of military strategy and tactics in Gaza”.
White House officials insist Biden is doing what he can in private to restrain Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. There is scant evidence to show for it. Israel has received more than 100 2,000lb bunker buster bombs from the US since October 7. These pack the kind of punch meant for the battlefield, not for precision targeting of terrorists in urban settings. Nobody seriously disputes claims that the Israel Defense Forces have used such munitions indiscriminately. Yet Biden continues to resist attaching strings to the almost $14.5bn in Israeli aid he wants from Congress. He has military leverage and the power of the bully pulpit. What is preventing him from using them?
The answer boils down to Biden’s deep-seated sentiments about Israel. From his earliest days in politics he was one of Israel’s staunchest allies on Capitol Hill. But the circumstances in which his affection was forged have changed drastically. Golda Meir and Yitzhak Rabin, two Israeli leaders he admired, stood for the antithesis of Netanyahu’s brand of politics. Biden has always stuck to the unshakeable belief that Israel only compromises when there is “no daylight” between America and Israel. The record suggests the opposite.
Biden was a fierce critic of George HW Bush’s push for a peace process in 1992 between Israel and the Palestinian Liberation Organisation. He also attacked Bush Sr’s threat to withdraw US loan guarantees if Israel went ahead with settlements in the occupied territories. Bush’s pressure helped topple Israel’s then Likud government and bring Rabin to power. That resulted in the Oslo peace accords. As vice-president, Biden undermined Barack Obama’s attempt in 2010 to put similar pressure on Netanyahu’s government. Partly because of Biden’s private reassurances, Israel’s prime minister stared Obama down. Obama blinked first.
By putting tough conditions on US aid, Biden could topple Netanyahu if he wanted — and earn the thanks of Israelis, the Arab world and the majority of Jewish-Americans. It would also reclaim some of the ground America has lost in the global south over its perceived double standards. Much of the world thinks that America cares more about European victims such as Ukrainians than about civilians in the Middle East or elsewhere. Netanyahu’s exit would probably pave the way for Benny Gantz, a centrist Israeli leader, who could be a partner in Biden’s rhetorical commitment to a two-state solution. At a fundraiser last month, Biden said: “We’re not going to do a damn thing other than to protect Israel. Not a single thing.”
Continuing like this will be a double whammy against Biden. First, Netanyahu’s tactics are harming Israel. They are creating a new generation of bereft parents and orphans. Netanyahu is capable of broadening the war to Lebanon if he thought it would save his skin. Though Biden has warned against it, what would he do then? Second, Biden is harming his re-election chances. Michigan’s Arab-American community is almost twice the size of his victory margin over Trump there in 2020. In Arizona, it is six times bigger. Telling such voters that Trump would be worse is bad politics. They might not vote. Nor, when it comes to Gaza, would that warning necessarily be true.
The longer Netanyahu clings to power, the worse for Biden. Yet his actions seem designed to ensure just that.
edward.luce@ft.com