Vice President Kamala Harris’ odds of becoming this year’s Democratic presidential nominee more than quadrupled on Tuesday, according to traders at Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market platform that has seen massive growth in an election year.
“Yes” participates in a contract The company’s shares were trading at 31 cents in afternoon New York time, indicating the market expects that to happen by 31%, up from 7% earlier in the day. The shares have recovered some of their gains and were recently trading at 23 cents.
Each share pays $1 (in USDC, a stablecoin, or cryptocurrency pegged to the US dollar) if the prediction comes true, and zero if it doesn’t.
Officially, President Joe Biden is still the presumptive Democratic nominee. But many supporters are calling for him to step down, and some want Harris to step up after her boss. Confusing performance In a debate last week with former commander-in-chief and almost certain Republican nominee Donald J. Trump.
“We should do everything we can to support her, whether it’s second place or first,” said Rep. James Clyburn, a Democrat. He said On TV on Tuesday.
A Newsweek op-ed by former Rep. Tim Ryan, the first presidential candidate to endorse Biden in 2020, was even more blunt: “Kamala Harris Should Be The Democratic Nominee For President In 2024“A Wall Street Journal analysis titled Harris”The most likely alternative to Biden“.”
The trend was similar Tuesday on PredictIt, a more traditional prediction market platform where bets are settled in dollars rather than cryptocurrencies. “Yes” Harris shares there More than double PredictIt’s sales volume on the question of who will win the Democratic nomination is $31 million, far less than Polymarket’s $75 million.
Under a settlement with the CFTC, Polymarket is barred from doing business in the United States, while PredictIt is allowed to operate in the country under a regulatory exemption.
Tuesday was Polymarket’s fifth-highest trading day in its four-year history, with $5.7 million in volume, according to Dune Analytics data. June was the first month Polymarket saw Over $100 million In size.
Its largest contract ever, worth $211 million in bets, asks who He will win the US presidency in November.Trump remains the favorite, with a 66% chance of winning.
Meanwhile, a Kama coin, a coin bearing the name of the Vice President, was launched. They gathered on Tuesday.The price more than doubled in 24 hours to $0.007815.