The latest reading of the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation showed that price increases were flat in October compared with the previous month, raising questions about whether progress in reaching the central bank’s 2% target has stalled.
The core personal consumption expenditures index, which excludes food and energy costs and is closely monitored by the central bank, rose 0.3% from the previous month during October, in line with Wall Street’s forecast of 0.3% and the reading from September. .
Over the previous year, core prices rose 2.8%, in line with Wall Street expectations and higher than the 2.7% seen in September. On a yearly basis, total personal consumption expenditures rose 2.3%, up from 2.1% recorded in September.
“Core personal consumption expenditures have been going sideways over the past couple of months,” Paul Grunewald, global chief economist at S&P Global Ratings, told Yahoo Finance. “If you think the Fed is on a lower interest rate path, which we are, that would probably lean toward the pause (rate-cutting) camp.”
Grunwald added that the Fed will not be in a rush to cut interest rates unless it sees a “more convincing decline” in core personal consumption expenditures.
Going into the release, markets were debating how far the Fed would continue to cut interest rates over the next year. Minutes from the Fed’s November meeting released Tuesday revealed that some officials believe the Fed may hold off on cutting interest rates if “inflation remains high.”
Read more: What a Fed rate cut means for bank accounts, CDs, loans and credit cards
Recent data has added to this situation. Earlier this month, the core CPI, which excludes the more volatile costs of food and gas, showed prices in October posting a 3.3% annual increase for the third month in a row. Meanwhile, the core Producer Price Index (PPI) revealed prices rose 3.1% annually in October, up from 2.8% the previous month and above economists’ expectations for a 3% increase.
In a recent speech, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman expressed concern that the Fed’s progress toward its 2% inflation target had “stalled,” and said the central bank should proceed “cautiously” when cutting interest rates.
“We have seen significant progress in reducing inflation since early 2023, but progress appears to have stalled in recent months,” Bowman said in a speech at the Palm Beaches Club Forum.
However, markets expect the Fed to cut rates again in 2024. As of Wednesday morning, markets were anticipating a roughly 67% chance that the Fed would cut rates at its December meeting. According to CME FedWatch.
“Momentum in inflation toward the Fed’s 2% target has faltered recently but not enough, in our view, to prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates,” Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note to clients on Thursday. In December.”
Additional inflation data ahead of the Fed’s rate decision on December 18 will influence the Fed’s decision. Incoming November CPI and PPI data, which will be released before the Fed’s December meeting, will be “pivotal to the Fed’s decision,” Capital Economics deputy chief economist Stephen Brown wrote in a note to clients.
Josh Schaeffer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.
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