Lithuania holds a presidential vote as anxieties rise in the Baltics over Russia and war in Ukraine

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VILNIUS, Lithuania (AP) — Lithuania holds a presidential election on Sunday at a time when Russian gains on the battlefield in Ukraine are raising greater concerns across Europe about Moscow's intentions, but especially in the strategically important Baltic region.

The popular incumbent, Gitanas Nauseda, is likely to win another five-year term. But there are eight candidates in total, making it unlikely that he or any other candidate will be able to win the 50% of the vote needed to win outright on Sunday. In this case, a runoff will be held two weeks later on May 26.

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The main duties of the president in Lithuania's political system are to oversee foreign and security policy, and to serve as Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces. These duties and the country's strategic location along NATO's eastern flank amid a larger geopolitical standoff between Russia and the West add heft to the role despite Lithuania's relatively small size.

There is great concern in Lithuania, and in neighboring Latvia and Estonia, about Russia gaining momentum in Ukraine. The three Baltic states declared their independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union and took a determined course westward, joining both the European Union and NATO.

Nosyda, a moderate conservative who turns 60 a week after Election Day on Sunday, has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine, a position shared across most of the political spectrum. During his time in office, Lithuania also granted refuge to many who fled an authoritarian crackdown in neighboring Belarus and increasing repression in Russia.

Nauseda, a former banker who entered politics through his successful presidential run in 2019, is seen as “the safe choice for voters of almost all ideological persuasions,” said Tomas Janilionas, an analyst at the Institute of International Relations and Political Science at Vilnius University.

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Polls indicate that his main opponents are Ignace Vigeli, the populist lawyer, who is in second place according to the latest opinion polls, and Prime Minister Ingrida Simonetti, who is in third place in the polls.

Not all voters see Noceda as the safest option.

Asta Valanciyan, a teacher from Vilnius, said she would vote for Simonetti because of the prime minister's longer experience in politics than newcomer Nauseda.

“I would rather give it a chance than to see another five years of this random guy in office. I simply trust the professionals,” Valenciennes said.

Simonetti, a former finance minister, became prime minister in 2020 after failing to run for president in 2019, with Noceda winning that election with 66% of the vote in a runoff.

Vėgėlė has gained popularity among some Lithuanians during the COVID-19 pandemic by being highly critical of the current government's lockdown and vaccination policies.

Rima Urbonaiti, a political analyst at Mykolas Romeris University in Vilnius, said Vigeli's second-place finish could push him into a more prominent role in national politics ahead of Lithuania's parliamentary elections this fall – and would be a major blow to the prime minister.

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“For first place, everything is almost clear, but it is difficult to say who will advance to the second round. Noceda's chances of re-election are high. However, this time, second place has become very important.

While both Noseda and Simonetti are staunch supporters of increased military spending and big supporters of Kiev, many other candidates view aid to Ukraine as an invitation for Russia to invade Lithuania.

Vigeli's comments on the issue of aid to Ukraine have been ambiguous at times, and he has mocked those who support increasing defense spending to 4% of GDP, double NATO's target.

A referendum is also scheduled to be held on Sunday. He questions whether the constitution should be amended to allow dual citizenship for hundreds of thousands of Lithuanians living abroad.

Lithuanian citizens who currently adopt another nationality must renounce their Lithuanian citizenship, creating vulnerabilities for a nation whose population has declined from 3.5 million in 1990 to 2.8 million today.

If it passes, Parliament will be able to amend the 1992 Constitution so that people who have Lithuanian citizenship by birth will be able to retain it if they acquire citizenship of another “friendly to Lithuania” country.

A similar attempt to change the statute failed in 2019 because turnout was below the required 50% of registered voters to be valid.

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