Little-Contest Tunisia Vote Dashes Hope in Cradle of Arab Spring

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(Bloomberg) — Tunisians vote Sunday in an election that will likely spell the death knell for the Arab Spring that was born in the North African country more than a decade ago, and cement a partnership with Italy’s Giorgia Meloni that has caused a decline in illegal immigration to Europe.

President Kais Saied has spent five years consolidating power and is accused of crushing opposition, imprisoning critics and demonizing black migrants — all while enjoying the support of Meloni and other anti-immigration European leaders. His almost certain victory may signal further economic hardship for ordinary Tunisians already suffering from rampant unemployment, recurring food shortages and high costs of living, but it advances the EU’s migration goals in North Africa.

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Meloni and Saeed share a focus on tackling irregular migration – one of the issues that brought them to power in 2022 – and the pair signed a controversial deal for police crossing attempts last year.

The agreement, along with similar agreements with other North African countries, has helped reduce the number of arrivals by sea by 60% year-on-year to just over 50,000 so far in 2024, according to the Italian Interior Ministry. The Italian leader denied widespread allegations of human rights violations in partner countries.

Meloni, who has visited Tunisia four times since taking office, is now trying to export the partnership to the wider European Union and expand it to include a €5 billion ($5.5 billion) energy and food security investment plan in Africa aimed at stopping illegal migration. According to people familiar with the diplomatic efforts. Although Tunisia and the European Union signed a wide-ranging treaty last year, it has not yet been implemented.

Riccardo Fabiani, director of the North Africa Project at the International Crisis Group, said that given the faltering attempts to stop migration in the Sahel region of West Africa, many European officials view North Africa as the “last line of defence.”

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Saied, the independent who overcame Tunisia’s political elite to become the surprise winner of the 2019 elections, is an unexpected figure for populists. He is stern and unsmiling, and tends to cite long-dead political theorists in discussions. One of Saied’s few concessions to the social media age comes via semi-regular Facebook videos, in which he delivers tirades about corruption and foreign conspiracies.

The concern among European officials is that unpredictability and potential negative reaction to any EU criticism of election behavior could derail or delay the deal, said one of the people familiar with European officials’ thinking.

Fabiani added that little would prevent Saied, for example, from “resuming sending migrants across the Mediterranean and claiming that Europe cannot use the country as a client state.” “He is an unpredictable leader.”

authoritarian line

Saied has looked beyond Europe for friendships, building relationships with China and Iran. His cozy relationship with Italy developed even as he struck an increasingly authoritarian tone at home and oversaw a faltering economy.

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His rejection of what he called “dictations” from the International Monetary Fund has sparked concern among bondholders about how Tunisia will meet its debt servicing needs, which are set to reach a record level this year of about 41% of government spending.

“The economy is collapsing” and may escalate to the size of Lebanon’s economic crisis, said Tarek Megerisi, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Foreign reserves are chronically low, and the government’s reliance on the domestic debt market to correct public financial conditions hinders growth and may put pressure on the value of the local currency.

Saeed, 66, defended his economic management and denied accusations that he was crushing the emerging democracy by neutralizing the judiciary. Tunisia, where the country’s long-ruling dictator was ousted in 2011, unleashed a wave of pro-democracy protests in the Arab world that have been undone for years.

“As General de Gaulle once said, at this age I cannot begin my career as a dictator,” he told reporters in 2022.

Challenger Prison

The authorities have already imprisoned one of these two electoral rivals – chemical engineer Ayachi Zamel – while the other is an ally.

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“Saeed can be sure that most Tunisians will stay home, because they cannot see a credible alternative to the president, while his hard-line supporters will come out to renew his term,” Fabiani said.

Citing the need to save the country from chaos, Saied used legal principles to seize greater powers in July 2021 – declaring a state of emergency that gave the president all state powers as he tries to create what he calls a “new republic.” “

University of Tunis law professor Saghir Al-Zaqraoui said that after more than three years, Tunisia is experiencing an “authoritarian drift” as the state of emergency imposed since 2021 has become a “permanent method of governance.”

Fabiani of the International Crisis Group said Sunday’s vote was important for Saied to show internally and externally “that his project is still popular and that people are still with him.”

But Mejrisi said that most Tunisians, especially the country’s many young people, are disappointed.

“Nihilism prevails among Tunisian youth,” he said. “They have no options: they tried the revolution and it didn’t work. Most Tunisians are looking to leave.”

-With assistance from Julius Domoni.

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