What is the relationship between Ukraine and Brazil? On the face of it, maybe not much.
However, in his The first six months in officeBrazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva – now in his third non-consecutive term – has put in a lot of effort. trying to make peace to the conflict in Eastern Europe. This has been included Conversations with US President Joe Biden in Washington, Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing And in a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. It also witnessed “shuttle diplomacy” by Lula’s chief foreign policy advisor – and former foreign minister – Celso Amorim, who Visited Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow And He was greeted by his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrovin Brasilia.
One of the reasons Brazil has been in a position to meet such a range of parties to the conflict is that the nation Be careful not to take sides In the war. In doing so, Brazil is involved with my colleagues Carlos Fortin And Carlos Ominami And me Call “Active non-alignment. By this we mean an approach to foreign policy in which countries in the Global South – Africa, Asia and Latin America – refuse to take sides in conflicts between great powers and focus strictly on their own interests. It is an approach taken by The Economist. It is distinguished “How to survive a superpower split.”
The difference between this new “non-alignment” and a similar approach adopted by countries in the past decades is that it takes place in an era when the developing nations are in a much stronger position than they used to be, with rising powers emerging among them. For example, the GDP in relation to the purchasing power of the five BRICS countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – has It outperformed the G7 Group of developed economic countries. This growing economic power gives the active non-aligned countries more international leverage, allowing them to forge new initiatives and build diplomatic alliances in a way they could not have imagined before. Do, for example, Joao Goulart, who held the position President of Brazil from 1961 to 1964They tried to mediate the Vietnam War the same way Lula did with Ukraine? I think asking the question is the answer.
Neither neutral nor indifferent
Active NAM growth has been driven by increased competition and what I see as The emergence of the second cold war between the United States and China. For many countries in the Global South, maintaining good relations with both Washington and Beijing has been crucial to economic development, as well as trade and investment flows.
It is simply not in their interest to take sides in this growing conflict. At the same time, active non-alignment should not be confused with neutrality – Legal position under international law that entail certain duties and obligations. Being neutral means not taking a stand, which is not the case in active non-alignment.
And active nonalignment about staying equal distance, politically, from the great powers. On some issues – say, regarding democracy and human rights – it is quite possible for an active non-aligned policy to take a position closer to the United States. while in others – for example, international trade – the country may take the side of China.
This form of non-alignment requires very careful diplomacy, examining each issue on its merits and making choices steeped in statecraft.
Withdrawals around the world
As far as the war in Ukraine is concerned, it means no support from Russia or NATO. And Brazil is not the only country in the Global South to take this position, although it was the first to try to broker a peace agreement.
Ir AfricaAnd Asia And latin americamany major countries He refused to stand with NATO. Among the most prominent of these countries is India, which despite its close relations with the United States in recent years and its accession to the Quadruple Security Dialogue – or the “Quad”, a group sometimes described as the “Asian NATO” – with the United States, Japan and Australia, He refused to condemn the Russian invasion Ukraine and significantly Increased imports of Russian oil.
India’s non-alignment is supposed to be on the agenda during Prime Minister Narendra Modi talks with Biden on his upcoming visit to Washington.
In fact, India’s position, The largest democracy in the worldshows how the war in Ukraine, far from reflecting the major geopolitical divide in the world today between democracy and authoritarianism, Biden has arguedreveals that the real division is between the North of the Globe and the South of the Globe.
Some of the world’s most populous democracies as well as India – countries like IndonesiaAnd PakistanAnd South AfricaBrazil, Mexico And Argentina They refused to align themselves with NATO. It did not support any country in Africa, Asia and Latin America Diplomatic and economic sanctions against Russia.
Although many of these countries have voted to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine in the United Nations General Assembly, where More than 140 countries have done this over and over againNobody wants to turn what they see as a European war into a world war.
How do the “great powers” interact?
Washington seems to have been Caught by surprise Through this reaction, after portraying the war in Ukraine as a choice between good and evil – a war in which the future of the “international rules-based order” is at stake. Likewise, during the Cold War with the Soviet Union, US Secretary of State John Foster Dulles Non-alignment is referred to as “immoral.”. “
Russia saw the new Non-Aligned Movement as an opportunity to strengthen its position with Foreign Minister Lavrov They intersect in Africa, Asia and Latin America To support Moscow’s opposition to sanctions. China, in turn, has intensified its campaign to promote The international role of the yuanarguing that the weaponization of the US dollar against Russia only underscores the dangers of relying on it as a major global currency.
But I would argue that active non-alignment depends as much on multilateralism and regional cooperation as it does on these high-level meetings. newly South American Diplomatic Summit In Brasilia called by Lula – the first meeting of its kind to be held in 10 years – it reflects Brazil’s awareness of the need to work with neighbors to spread its international initiatives.
Think local, act globally
This need for co-operation is also driven The economic crisis in the region. In 2020, Latin America experienced its worst economic downturn in 120 years, with regional GDP decreases by an average of 6.6%. The region has also had the highest COVID-19 death rate anywhere in the world, according to the accounting For nearly 30% of global deaths of the epidemic even though it comprises just over 8% of the world’s population. In this context, being caught in the midst of a great power battle is unattractive, and energetic non-alignment resonated.
Alongside the nascent Cold War between the United States and China and the war in Ukraine, the revival of Non-Aligned Movement in its new “active” incarnation reflects widespread disenchantment in the Global South with what was known as the “liberal international order” existed since World War II.
This system is seen as increasingly outdated and unresponsive to the needs of developing countries on issues ranging from international indebtedness And food security to immigration and climate change. For many countries in the Global South, calls to uphold a “rules-based order” seem to serve only the foreign policy interests of the great powers, not the global common good. In such a context, it is perhaps unsurprising that many states actively refuse to fall into the “us versus them” dynamic.
George Heine He is the interim director of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Long-Term Future. Boston University.
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