Market Update – April 13 – CPI & FED “One more hike & done?”

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the US consumer price index The report was good news for the bulls as it suggests that the FOMC could start to loosen the brakes, although this is unlikely in May (69% chance of another rally). Some market participants think there is 25 bps and it will be done, others are still hawkish and moving CORE CPI & CPE from 5% to 3-2% range would be problematic and that could mean hikes in May and June as well.

Federal Open Market Committee minutes Show big discussions about banking turmoil, as shown in Chairman Powell’s press conference. “The banking sector” was literally the first paragraph of the report, and was mentioned 24 times overall, compared to zero in February. There was some general softening in the outlook, which, too “Increasing the already high level of uncertainty associated with the outlook for economic activity.” However, in the end “everyone” Participants supported a rate hike of 25 basis points. a moderate recession It is expected from the Federal Open Market Committee.

the Bank of Canada Leave the target rate at 4.50%, As expected, unchanged from March after tightening 25 basis points in January. But it was a “tough” pause as inflation and economic activity did not develop as expected. bastard Earned in the news.

Yesterday’s news flow was dominated by volatility. American dollar dives and stays under pressure, Euro, British Pound and Australian Dollar Everyone benefited. US stocks All markets closed lower, fueled by mixed Asian markets and European and US futures. treasury Markets caught additional supply and yields ended lower, led by a 2-year decline of 6.5bps to 3.958% and +3.5bps for the 10-years to 3.395%, stay 56 bp mirrored. gold And oil Both benefited from the weak US dollar and BTC continues to hold out 30 thousand dollars.

Overnight data China Marsh Trading – Big Win – (in USD) exports +14.8% x/yr (expected -7.1%) & imports -1.4% On an annual basis (-6.4% expected). AUD functions beats (53 thousand vs. 20 thousand), The unemployment (3.5% vs. 3.6%) & CPI (4.6% vs. 5.3%) both of which have decreased significantly as well. German final consumer price index in line in 7.8% And UK GDP (Feb) missed again (0.0% vs. 0.1% and 0.4%) The last time.

  • FXUSD Refused to test April lows at 101.05 And it stays well anchored below 102.00 today in 101.20. euro rose to 1.1000 Yesterday and again today are trading at 1.0988. 2023 height is 1.1032. JPY dive from 134.00, Tested below 133.00 and trades in 133.25 now. sstunned rebounded from 1.2400 But it remains under the key 1.2500 again in 1.2490.
  • Stores – US markets closed lower (-0.11% to -0.85%) The interest rate-sensitive technology sector once again led the declines. #US500 Closed 17 points. in 4091.500 USD FUTS is also down today at 4124 from heights 4177 yesterday. #LVMH rebounded after sales rose in China.

  • Goods – Lycel oil – I tested futures $83.50 level today despite official EIA stocks showing weak demand as a build (+ 0.6 m vs. -1.0M and -3.7M last week) for both gasoline and petroleum products. gold – has broken 2020 dollarsthe level again today had fallen to a low level 2001 dollars, and height $2,028 yesterday.
  • Digital currencies BTC He carries $30 kilos level rise to 30.4 thousand dollars And 29.6 thousand dollars extremism yesterday.

today EZ Industrial Production, Producer price index in the United StatesUS Weekly Claims, US Department of Agriculture on OPEC, Letters from the Bank of Canada MacklemBank of England pill.

The largest forex engine @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.38%). Continue to crowd from below 88.00 Monday for the test 89.50 today. Moving averages align up, MACD histogram and signal line are positive and bullish, RSI 63.00 and bullish, H1 ATR 0.187, daily ATR 1.526.

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Stuart Coyle

Principal market analyst

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