More Pain For BTC Incoming? Miners Haven’t Capitulated Yet

There has been growing speculation about Bitcoin miners capitulating as hash rate increases slow, operating costs increase, and asset prices continue to decline.

Analyst James Cheek assessed selling pressure from miners to determine the severity of the miners’ sell-off in a video on June 21.

He said that miners selling after the halving event and reducing their block support is completely normal.

I’ve seen a few people speculating as to whether #Bitcoin Miners give up and lower prices.

So I crunched the numbers, and analyzed both the sell side pressure in current and legacy miners.

Now we live for @_checkonchain Participants.https://t.co/BqEd6tkokG

– _Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ (@_Checkmatey_) June 21, 2024

Selling bitcoin miners

Check analyzed the Puell multiplier, which is calculated by dividing Bitcoin’s daily issuance value by the 365-day moving average of its daily issuance value, to determine that miners may not be in an “extreme level of stress,” but they’re not having a great time either.

He added that if the market declines further, they will likely enter a capitulation mode He said Before the addition, they are now just “teetering on the edge.”

He also identified a “hash bar reversal,” which occurs when the 30-day moving average of the hash rate crosses below the 60-day moving average, indicating a period of difficulty when weaker miners are forced to shut down unprofitable platforms.

Furthermore, the overall decline in hash rate was only 4%, which is not massive and smaller than during previous periods of miner pressure.

“Miners will likely distribute some of their vaults, but it may not be a full and complete sale at a bargain price, meaning they may be just treading water.”

“This doesn’t look like a real painful capitulation to a bear market,” he concluded.

In a post on X on June 21, fellow analyst Willy Wu commented that Bitcoin will recover when “weak miners die and the hashrate recovers.”

“This is for the record books, as it takes a lot of time for miners to surrender after the halving,” he added, before suggesting that the ordinals may have been boosting profits.

I will break it down in simple terms.

when #Bitcoin Recovery? This happens when weak miners die and the hash rate recovers.

This is for the record books as it takes a lot of time for miners to surrender after the halving.

Perhaps the ordinal inscriptions can thank the increased profits. pic.twitter.com/19MB0b8mHO

– Willie Wu (@woonomic) June 20, 2024

BTC price forecast

Bitcoin fell to a five-week low of $63,550 on June 21, but recovered to regain $64,000 during Asian trading on Saturday.

Analyst Don Alt said markets were at a “do or die” level on the weekly time frame before reiterating his stance: “I really don’t like the low $60,000 range for another test.”

He said that if this level is broken, Bitcoin could fall to the next support level, which is $52,000. This would prompt miners to surrender, leading to more selling pressure.

$ Bitcoin

On a weekly “do or die” level here
As I mentioned before, I don’t really like the low $60k range for another test
This is the best untested support

If it breaks, I think we will go to the next support indicated, if it holds new ATHs then likely pic.twitter.com/ROZ1oQZ001

– Donalt (@CryptoDonAlt) June 21, 2024