© Reuters. An armed ship sails past the Crimean Bridge connecting the Russian mainland and peninsula through the Kerch Strait, Crimea, July 17, 2023. REUTERS/Stringer
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KIEV (Reuters) – Russia on Monday halted its participation in a year-old U.N.-brokered agreement allowing Ukraine to export grain across the Black Sea, spreading a sense of dread in poor countries where people fear rising prices will put food out of their reach.
Hours earlier, an explosion destroyed the Russian bridge leading to Crimea, in what Moscow described as a strike carried out by Ukrainian drones. Russia said two civilians were killed and their daughter wounded in what Moscow called a terrorist attack on the road bridge, a major artery for Russian forces fighting in Ukraine.
The Kremlin said there was no link between the attack and its decision to suspend the grain deal because of what it described as a failure to meet its demands for a parallel agreement relaxing rules on its exports of food and fertilizer.
“Unfortunately, part of the Black Sea agreements relating to Russia has not yet been implemented, so their effect has expired,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a conference call.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres indicated that Russia’s withdrawal means ending the relevant agreement to facilitate Russian grain and fertilizer exports.
“Today’s decision by the Russian Federation will deal a blow to the needy everywhere,” he told reporters.
Moscow said it would consider returning to the grain deal if it saw “tangible results” on its demands, but would at the same time revoke its guarantees of safe navigation.
And in Washington, the White House said Russia’s suspension of the agreement would “worse food security and harm millions.”
World food prices
Ukraine is one of the world’s largest exporters of grain and other foodstuffs and any interruption could lead to higher food prices all over the world, especially in the poorest countries.
The effects will be far-reaching in Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya, which are facing the Horn of Africa’s worst drought in decades, said Shashuat Sarraf, the International Rescue Committee’s (IRC) East Africa emergencies director.
“I don’t know how we will survive,” said Halima Hussein, a mother of five who lives in a crowded camp in the Somali capital Mogadishu for people displaced by years of heavy rains and violence.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has raised the prospect of resuming grain exports without Russia’s participation, indicating that Kiev will seek Turkey’s support to lift the de facto Russian blockade imposed last year.
“We are not afraid,” spokesman Serhiy Nikiforov quoted Zelensky as saying. “The companies and the ship owners contacted us. They said they were ready, if Ukraine lets them go, and Turkey continues to let them through, then everyone is willing to continue supplying grain.”
Bridge explosion
The explosion on the land bridge to Crimea could have a direct impact on Moscow’s ability to supply its forces in southern Ukraine, and exposes the vulnerability of Russia’s Black Sea infrastructure to devices such as seaborne drones: small, fast, remote-controlled boats. And full of hardware. Explosives.
Pictures showed part of the road bridge had fallen and traffic had stopped in both directions, although a parallel railway bridge was still functioning. Explosions have been reported before dawn on the 19-kilometer (12-mile) bridge, which Putin ordered to be built after seizing and annexing the peninsula from Ukraine in 2014.
Kiev did not give an official version of the explosions, but Ukrainian media quoted unidentified officials as saying that the Ukrainian Security Service was behind the explosion. SBU spokesman Artem Dekhtyarenko euphemistically hinted at the idea that the agency would reveal details of the explosion after Ukraine won the war, without directly claiming responsibility.
Ukraine says the bridge is illegal and Russia’s use of it for military supplies makes it a legitimate target. It was hit by a massive explosion and fire in October.
The grain deal was hailed as preventing a global food emergency when it was brokered by the United Nations and Turkey last year.
Global food commodity prices rose on Monday, although the increase was limited, indicating that traders were not yet anticipating a severe supply crunch.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the sponsor of the grain deal, said earlier on Monday that he still believed Russian President Vladimir Putin wanted it to continue.
Western countries say Russia is trying to use its influence in the grain deal to weaken financial sanctions that do not apply to Russian agricultural exports.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described Russia’s suspension of the agreement as a “cynical move” and said the EU would continue to try to secure food for poor countries.
Without Russia?
Russia agreed three times last year to extend the Black Sea agreement, despite repeated threats to pull out. It suspended its participation after an attack by Ukrainian seaborne drones on its fleet in October, leading to a few days when Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations kept exports below Moscow.
Denis Marchuk, deputy head of the Agrarian Council of Ukraine, Ukraine’s main agricultural organization, said seaborne exports may continue again without Russian approval.
“If there are guarantees of safety from our partners, why not take the grain initiative without Russia’s participation?” he told Reuters.
Any such appeal without Russia’s blessing will likely depend on the insurers. Industry sources told Reuters it was considering whether to freeze its coverage.
“The (main) question is whether Russia is mining the area, which would effectively stop offering any form of coverage,” said an insurance industry source.
The balance of naval power has changed since Russia imposed its blockade in the first months of the war. Kiev, with no comparable fleet of its own, managed to sink the Russian flagship, recapture the Snake Island promontory overlooking shipping lanes, and target the Russian Black Sea Fleet in port with drones.
The latest explosion on the Russian bridge leading to Crimea comes after months of Ukrainian strikes on Russian supply lines, as Kiev continues a counter-attack to expel Russian forces from its territory.