Mario Tama/Getty Images News
Ozempic, Novo Nordisk (NVO’s) top-selling drug, will reach $17 billion in annual sales by 2029 as it continues to dominate the diabetes market, according to a new report.
Data analytics and consulting firm GlobalData expects sales of Ozempic (semaglutide) to rise 23% in 2023 compared to last year to $ 12.5 billion.
In the first quarter of 2023, Novo (NVO) reported revenue for Ozempic of KWD 19.64 billion (~US$2.85 billion).
GlobalData indicated that Ozempic’s sales this year will be 54% higher than its closest competitor, Eli Lilly’s (New York Stock Exchange: LLY) Trulicity (dulaglutide), which is expected to generate $8 billion in sales. Both are glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 agonists).
In the first quarter, Lilly (LLY) reported $1.98 billion in revenue for Trulicity, up 14% from the year-ago period.
GlobalData said Ozempic’s largest market will continue to be the United States, which will account for 65% of all sales in 2022. Between 2023 and 2029, it is expected to generate $71 billion in revenue. This represents a compound annual growth rate of 9% over the period.
Ikram Triki, drug intelligence analyst at GlobalData, noted that Ozempic is increasingly being used off-label as a weight-loss agent.
Semaglutide, the active pharmaceutical ingredient in Ozempic, is the same ingredient in the Novo Nordisk (NVO) approved weight loss treatment Wegovy, although at different dosage strengths. Wegovy reported a profit of DKK 4.56 billion (about $661 million USD) in the first quarter. Semaglutide is also available in tablet form as Rybelsus.
“The significant weight loss achieved by patients with Ozempic and other GLP1-targeting drugs makes insulin requirements lower for patients with type 2 diabetes, motivating both patients and healthcare practitioners to consider this drug.” the report male.
Although the report didn’t mention it, Lilly’s Mounjaro (tirzepatide) could put some pressure on the semaglutide franchise. Although it’s currently only approved for type 2 diabetes, Lilly is pursuing an indication for weight loss, which may come later this year.
Monjaro had sales of $568.5 million in the first quarter.
In one study, individuals who took tirzepatide achieved up to 22.5% weight loss over 72 weeks. The study participants were obese, but did not have diabetes. Weight loss was greater than in the 68-week semaglutide study.
More on Novo Nordisk and Ozambique
Novo Nordisk: Going from strength to strength
Novo Nordisk: With respect to fiscal ’22 and the coincidence of the GLP-1s
Novo Nordisk has some room to run
Discontinuation of Wegovy by Novo Nordisk, Ozempic May Lead to Weight Gain – Report