Once ridiculed, oil lobby destined to dominate the Dubai COP28 forum

The oil-producing companies and countries, which only a couple of years ago were universally condemned for the global climate debacle, will likely be at the high table during the COP28 climate forum in Dubai later this month, influencing the course of the climate agenda.

The chairmanship of the forum will be a key oil-producing country, the United Arab Emirates. The oil producers have earned their current space in the past two years when they rescued the world from a serious energy crisis triggered by oil and gas supply chain disruptions caused by the Russia-Ukraine war.

The Global North countries are still smarting from serious economic and energy impacts caused by the war, as they re-engineer their energy and climate policies. The same countries are deeply preoccupied with rapidly evolving disruptive geopolitics, with climate evidently relegated a notch.

In Dubai, oil-producing companies and countries will justify why oil and gas will continue to be produced until alternative renewable energy capacity is sufficiently developed to permit smooth energy transition. They will demonstrate how oil and gas demands are yet to show signs of peaking.

For a world still experiencing energy insecurity and economic instability, this will be a convincing proposition and solution. With the return of oil industry profits boom, investor climate activists and capital financiers are back to supporting increased oil production investments.

The oil industry will further argue that the world can continue to produce and use oil, if they invest in alternative technologies that absorb, store, and use emitted carbon dioxide.

“Carbon absorption” will be the alternative climate mitigation concept and catchword at the COP28 climate forum – a major score by the oil lobby.

Previously ridiculed by activists as “climate deceit and greenwashing”, the carbon capture approach will specifically find support from Global South countries (including Kenya) which are eager and ready to cash in on opportunities offered by carbon absorption credit projects.

With the anticipated reduced level of Global North representation at COP28, climate justice activists from the south will have reduced targets to bash. Climate adaptation funding and tax agenda will be relegated to a lower level, with the Global North countries and multilateral financiers pledging specific funding for climate resilience projects that enhance national food security in the South.

The above is my scenario analysis of what is likely to prevail at COP28, based purely on facts that have happened over the past two years.

George Wachira, petroleum consultant, (email protected)