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Crude oil futures rose on Thursday, finding support in data that pointed to a slowing pace of inflation in the United States, with the May Producer Price Index coming in lower than expected a day after a weak May CPI reading.
OPEC President and Secretary General Haitham Al-Ghais Rejected forecasts of peak oil demand Thursday, in criticism of the International Energy Agency report that indicated a peak in oil consumption by 2029.
OPEC does not see a peak in oil demand in its long-term forecasts and expects demand to grow to at least 116 million barrels per day by 2045, while the International Energy Agency expects oil demand to stabilize at 106 million barrels per day by the end of the decade.
Al-Ghais said that similar gloomy predictions had been proven wrong in the past, noting that the International Energy Agency indicated that demand for gasoline peaked in 2019 and that demand for coal peaked in 2014.
The International Energy Agency expects growth to decline “from a cliff to almost zero” in the four years to 2030, which Al-Ghais described as an “unrealistic scenario” and “a dangerous suspension, especially for consumers, and will only lead to energy volatility in the long term.” . “It's potentially an unprecedented scale.”
“While OPEC welcomes all the progress made in renewables and electric vehicles, they are nowhere near enough to replace 80% of the energy mix,” the Secretary-General wrote.
Front-month Nymex crude (CL1:COM) closed for July delivery +0.1% To $78.62 per barrel, August Brent crude (CO1:COM) trading ended. +0.2% To $82.75 per barrel
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In the short term, OPEC maintained its demand growth estimate at 2.2 million bpd, while the International Energy Agency lowered its forecast to 960,000 bpd from 1.1 million bpd.
In comments reported by Dow Jones, analyst Jim Ritterbusch reviews global oil balances On the downside He sees a risk of reduced compliance with OPEC+ production quotas as the summer progresses, “particularly with estimated US production increasing last week for the first time in about three months.”