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OPEC maintained its forecast for more strong growth in global oil demand in 2024, while expecting a significant increase in oil use in 2025, led by China and the Middle East.
The outlook for 2025 reaffirms the group’s view that oil demand will continue to rise for the next 20 years differs from other forecasts such as that of the International Energy Agency, which predicts oil demand will peak by 2030 as the world shifts away from fossil fuels.
In its latest monthly report issued Wednesday, OPEC predicted world oil demand will rise by 1.85M bbl/day in 2025 to 106.2M bbl/day after growing by 2.25M bbl/day for 2024.
OPEC forecasts global economic growth will pick up in 2025 and reach 2.8% from an estimated 2.6% in 2024, as central banks are seen cutting interest rates starting later this year.
“Ultimately, peak oil supply has never come to pass, and predictions of peak oil demand are following a similar trend,” OPEC Secretary General Hathiam al-Ghais said.
Crude oil futures finished mixed Wednesday, with front-month Nymex crude (CL1:COM) for February delivery ending +0.2% to $72.56/bbl while front-month March Brent crude (CO1:COM) closed -0.5% to $77.88/bbl.
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Supply concerns may explain the divergent results, as below-zero temperatures caused oil production in North Dakota, the third highest producing state, to fall by 650K-700K bbl/day, more than half its typical output.
Crude prices have been confined to a narrow range so far this year, as the Middle East crisis has not yet led to a direct reduction in production.