The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge cooled further last month even as the economy kept growing briskly, a trend sure to be welcomed at the White House as President Joe Biden seeks re-election in a race that could pivot on his economic stewardship.
Friday’s government report showed that prices rose just 0.2% from November to December, a pace broadly consistent with pre-pandemic levels and barely above the Fed’s 2% annual target. Compared with a year ago, prices increased 2.6%, the same as in the previous month.
Excluding volatile food and energy costs, prices also rose just 0.2% from month to month. And compared with a year earlier, so-called “core” prices climbed 2.9% in December — the smallest such increase since March 2021. Economists consider core prices a better gauge of the likely path of inflation.
Friday’s mild inflation data arrived a day after government figures showed that the economy expanded at a surprisingly strong 3.3% annual pace in the final three months of last year. Solid consumer spending propelled the growth, capping a year that had begun with widespread expectations of a recession. Instead, the economy grew 2.5% in 2023, up from 1.9% in 2022.
Biden’s Republican critics have sought to highlight what had been the biggest inflation spike in 40 years, for which they have largely blamed the president’s spending policies. But with inflation having dropped sharply after an extended period of gloomy consumer sentiment, Americans are starting to show signs of feeling better about the economy. A measure of consumer confidence by the University of Michigan, for example, has jumped in the past two months by the most since 1991.
The latest data suggests that the economy is achieving a difficult “soft landing,” in which inflation falls back to the Fed’s 2% target without a recession. That outcome could make it easier for the Fed to consider cutting its key interest rate, which it raised 11 times since March 2022 to attack inflation. Higher interest rates have throttled home and auto sales by raising the cost of borrowing. Businesses have also chafed under the higher interest rates.
“There isn’t really any ‘last mile’ of disinflation still to achieve and… even with real economic growth still resilient, there is plenty of scope for the Fed to start cutting interest rates soon,” Andrew Hunter, deputy chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics, said in a research note.
In December, the Fed’s policymakers projected that they would carry out three quarter-point rate cuts this year. Yet they provided little hint of when the first cut might occur. Late last year, Wall Street traders had bet that the first rate cut would occur in March.
Several Fed officials, though, have pushed back against such assumptions. Christopher Waller, an influential figure on the Fed’s Board of Governors, last week reiterated his view that inflation is on track to return to the Fed’s 2% goal. But Waller cautioned that any decision to cut rates should be “carefully calibrated and not rushed” — remarks that were widely interpreted as downgrading the likelihood of a March cut.
“The inflation trajectory is improving, giving the Fed leeway to cut rates this year,” Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial, said in a statement to Fortune. “However, the Fed has further work to do and should not be tempted to declare ‘mission accomplished.’ Investors shouldn’t be surprised to see a temporary uptick next month in goods inflation from the disruptions in shipping.”
Many economists credit the Fed’s sharp rate hikes — which boosted its benchmark rate from near zero to about 5.4% after the most recent hike in July — with cooling demand and helping slow inflation. Rate cuts by the Fed, conversely, would eventually lead to lower borrowing costs for consumers and businesses.
Friday’s price data showed a lower level of inflation than did the most recent consumer price index, released earlier this month, which showed inflation at 3.4% in December. The more widely known CPI shows higher inflation than the Fed’s preferred measure partly because it puts greater weight on housing and rents, whose prices are higher than for many other goods and services.
During 2023, inflation fell steadily as global supply chains recovered from pandemic-era disruptions and more Americans came off the sidelines to take jobs, which helped slow wage growth. Slower-rising pay eases the pressure on businesses to raise prices to offset higher labor costs. According to the Fed’s preferred measure, inflation peaked at 7.1% in June 2022.