Powell checks the calendar (AI image)
I wish you a happy Monday and certainly a happier one than it could have been.
The Fed chairman spoke twice last week, so it’s hard to imagine he’ll change his stance, but he had the CPI from the second day of his testimony, so there’s a chance he’ll lean more dovish. He’ll speak at 12:30 p.m. ET in a conversation at the Economic Club of Washington. Given the format, I don’t expect a pre-released transcript, but I also wouldn’t rule out some sort of opening statement.
In terms of data, we’ll get the Fed report at the end of the hour to kick off the monthly manufacturing cycle. With it comes the Canadian wholesale trade report.
Canada will also be in the spotlight at 10:30 a.m. ET with the Bank of Canada’s second-quarter business expectations survey. The market is pricing in a 72% chance of a BoC rate cut on July 24, but that could change depending on the survey, which is a key input for the BoC.