Earlier today, Vivek discussed why he believes cryptocurrency native Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, is biased towards Trump in the upcoming US presidential election. Although this is reasonable given the arguments he makes, I still think he may not be as biased as he thinks.
First and foremost, prediction market traders bet on these odds to make money, not to swear loyalty to their favorite politician. Traders are looking to make a profit and try to fix their bets with attractive odds on who they think will win. Based on many factors, such as positive Republican voter registration data reported in swing states like Pennsylvania, there are signs that Trump has a very strong chance of winning this election. Even billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller He said The recent positive rally in the markets is due to the markets pricing in a Trump victory.
Like Vivek, many claim that since Polymarket is a native cryptocurrency company, its users of course support Trump because he is also pro-Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. So let’s take a look at another non-crypto market prediction platform, everything.
On Kalshi, a US betting platform that settles contracts in dollars, not bitcoin or cryptocurrencies, Trump also holds a significant lead. Trump is currently up 20% over Harris. The crowd of users on this platform appears to be choosing their bets on who they think will win the election, even putting aside their personal political preferences. Reading the comments, I see a lot of people saying they want Trump to win, but are taking the other side of that bet because they believe there may be election fraud from Democrats which could lead to a Harris “win.”
“You bet Trump didn’t take into account the possibility that delivery trucks would roll into the polls at 3 a.m. with 10,000 ballots, 99% of which went to Kamala and suddenly ‘found them.’ Comment 1 user. “Kamala wins legitimately or not, you have been warned.”
It will be fascinating to see how these prediction markets play out as we approach the election, which is now only two weeks away. I agree with Vivek that as we get closer to the election, these margins are likely to narrow. It seems to me that Trump has this in his bag, but it’s not over until it’s over. In the last election, most people went to bed thinking Trump had won the election, only to find the Democrats all voting for Biden at 3 a.m. to win the election. If there is any fraud or interference in the upcoming election, these prediction markets could be in for a very volatile time.
A Trump win would be huge for Bitcoin on a regulatory and price level, due to his proposed policies. On the other hand, under Harris, the future of Bitcoin in this country will be uncertain, because she has not laid out any real details about the policy she will implement during her presidency and she has a four-year track record of attacking the industry while in office. As Vice President.
Bitcoin Magazine is teaming up with Stand With Crypto to provide real-time election coverage on November 5th. So, if you’re a Bitcoiner who’s tired of watching mainstream news and want to see this election from a Bitcoiner’s perspective, be sure to tune in to the stream. More details about the live stream and where to watch here.
This article is a takes. The opinions expressed are entirely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.