RBC on oil and OPEC+, 'data dependent'

Regarding the OPC+ meeting and announcement, previous information:

  • Goldman Sachs says the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting is bearish for oil
  • More from OPEC+: Saudi Energy Minister says waiting for interest rates to fall
  • HSBC kept its Brent crude price assumptions steady after the OPEC+ meeting

In brief, OPEC's announcement included plans to phase out voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day

  • These reductions will begin to be phased out over a 12-month period starting in October
  • More than 500,000 barrels per day will return to the market by December
  • It will return 1.8 million barrels per day by June 2025

RBC isn't so sure:

  • “Some people are reading the OPEC statement, especially the part about adding barrels from the voluntary cut, as bearish.”

but:

  • “They were very clear that this was going to be data-driven.”
  • “As we get to the end of August, if the underlying picture looks worse than what we have now, they will pause this addition.”

Oil update, hour candles:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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