Every analyst I’ve read on the Tuesday, 7 November 2023 RBA decision has forecast a rate hike.
I have seen a couple of hold outs though. I haven’t managed to read a piece making the arguments for a hold. If I was writing such a piece (I am not as I think the RBA will raise its cash rate today) I’d point o:
- the RBA having been complacent in the past and it wouldn’t surprise me if they are again
- the movement higher for inflation evident in the recent official is not “material” for the RBA’s inflation outlook
- the impact of past rate hikes has not yet fully filtered into the real economy so there is a reason not to hike
From TD:
- expect a 25 bps hike following the outsized Q3 CPI print
- The outcome was material in our view and threatens the RBA’s ability to bring inflation under 3% by Q4’25.
- A hike would be consistent with RBA comments of ‘…a low tolerance returning inflation to target more slowly than currently expected.’
- That said, we do acknowledge the decision is a close call
Bolding mine. Yes, it is. Market pricing is around 60% for a hike.
—
Earlier:
- Former RBA Board member on ways to lower Australian inflation (& why RBA will hike today)
- RBA Shadow Board recommends a rate hike at tomorrow’s monetary policy meeting
- Failure to act on high CPI threatens to damage the Reserve Bank of Australia’s credibility
- Reuters Poll: RBA to high cash rate to 4.35% on November 7
- IMF tells the RBA to hike interest rates higher, and hold ’em high for longer
- Westpac forecasting a November Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike
- UBS forecasts a November RBA interest rate hike, and likely more to come after that
- RBA rate hike incoming on November 7 – will they hike again in December?
- Commonwealth Bank of Australia forecast a 25bp RBA rate hike on November 7
- Australia – Demand for luxury supercars “through the roof”
- Australian Treasurer Chalmers says inflation is moderating but persistent
- ANZ forecasts a 25bp RBA interest rate hike on November 7 (previous forecast was December)
- Australia – market is rapidly pricing in a November rate hike after surging inflation data
- AUD/USD jumped higher on Australian inflation data, November 7 rate hike is likely now.
The RBA statement is due at 2.30pm Sydney time, which is 2230 US Eastern time and 0330 GMT.
—
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.