Retail sales up in April but analysts warn on implications of further rate hikes

Retail sales volumes rebounded slightly by 0.5 percent in April as the sector rebounded in the Easter break, but high inflation and pressure on household finances still hampered spending.

Non-food store sales volumes rose 1.0 percent for the month, according to data from the Office for National Statistics, after falling 1.8 percent in March, when a particularly rainy start to spring hampered shoppers.

With grocery inflation still at record levels at around 17.1 percent, food store sales volumes rose 0.7 percent in April 2023, after a 0.8 percent decline in March 2023.

However, volumes were 2.7 percent below pre-coronavirus levels in February 2020, as households continue to spend cautiously when doing their weekly shopping.

Moreover, online shopping rose 0.2 percent for the month, after declining by 1.4 percent in March.

The figures show the impact of inflation, currently at 8.7 per cent, on Britons’ spending habits. When compared to the pre-coronavirus level in February 2020, total retail sales were 16.5 percent higher in value terms, but volumes were 0.8 percent lower – the country is getting less for what it pays for.

De Courcy, CEO of New West End Company, said: “After a challenging few months, it is positive to see retail sales up 0.5 per cent from last month.

April spending was undoubtedly boosted by the coronation weekend, which saw the arrival of thousands of international tourists. With inflation rising to domestic purchasing power, the importance of international visitors has never been greater.”

She added: “However, as we look forward to the traditionally busy summer trading period, we are concerned that the UK is on track to miss out on the important economic growth seen in other European countries that is not hampered by the tourism tax. Today’s figures also mask the potential for Chinese spenders to lose out in the future. , who are not yet back in numbers.”

Analysis by PricewaterhouseCoopers indicated that the “positive momentum” was welcome but could be dampened by higher interest rates.

“Overall, the trajectory remains positive, with the best quarterly improvement in retail volumes since August 2021. This reflects the latest measure of consumer confidence, which has been steadily improving since last fall,” said a note circulated this morning.

“With sales this month likely to be supported by coronation and additional bank holidays, we expect the positive momentum to continue in the short term. However, retailers are hopeful that the current green shoots will not be affected by higher interest rates or other macroeconomic challenges over the summer.”

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