- More work to do on inflation
- We are at a good place.
- Remarkable progress on inflation is not victory
- Slowing inflation without significant decline in unemployment is unequivocally good news
- Need more time, data to be sure of continued progress on inflation
- Risks ahead include slower inflation progress, faltering labor market
- Fed needs to resist temptation to act quickly when patience is needed
- Uncertain whether better productivity numbers will continue
- Disruptions in Red Sea, Panama Canal could be a new source of risk
- Ongoing economic momentum is a risk to inflation progress
- Sustainable price stability and full employment are the goals
- A big part of the story is supply. Bottlenecks have fallen. Has helped good price inflation to go back down
- US workers came back to work last year.
- Anticipation its highest level in two decades
- At the same time we saw a surge immigration
- We didn’t just get more worker, the workers were more productive.
- The decline in inflation is not just come from supply, the decline has also come from demand
- 2/3 of core PCE inflation came from the demand side.
- Inflationary expectations of households is at pre-pandemic levels
- Businesses inflation expectations has also improved
- The risks are more balanced.
- So far labor conditions have eased without reducing jobs.
At the start of the speech, the major indices are trading at:
- Dow Industrial Average -6.48 points or -0.02% at 38769
- S&P unchanged at 5029.67
- NASDAQ index -36.21 points or -0.23% at 15869.14
The two year yield at 4.669% and the yield is at 4.300%
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.