Retailers and the hospitality sector are bracing for a huge increase in consumer spending as Labour’s latest election victory coincides with a big weekend of sporting events, including England’s Euro 2024 match and Andy Murray’s potential final appearance at Wimbledon.
Businesses across the UK are set to benefit from a surge in consumer confidence following Keir Starmer’s election victory, coupled with the excitement generated by major sporting events. Historical trends show that a change in government often stimulates economic activity, with previous post-election periods in 1997 and 2010 seeing increases in consumer sentiment and retail spending, according to research from GlobalData and PwC.
The weekend ahead promises to be a big spending season, highlighted by England’s Euro 2024 quarter-final against Switzerland and the Wimbledon doubles match involving Emma Raducanu and Andy Murray. GlobalData predicts a £419.5m economic boost from football fans alone, with 24.8m Britons expected to watch England play, many of them crowding pubs and bars.
Tesco is forecasting strong sales in alcohol, with 3.5 million pints of beer and cider expected to be sold, as well as 1 million packs of sausages and 1.3 million tins of strawberries. Fans are expected to consume 13.4 million pints of beer in pubs to support the Three Lions.
The festive mood extends to searches for champagne, which are up 36% on Ocado, likely due to upbeat Labour supporters and enthusiastic football fans.
Ahead of the election, nearly 36% of consumers indicated they would be more confident in spending if Labour won, a sentiment that was stronger among younger demographics. PwC’s senior retail consultant, Ken Tan, pointed to the positive outlook, saying: “July will have a bit of a halo effect,” referring to current economic conditions and consumer confidence.
Expected policy shifts from the Labour government, such as cuts to national insurance and increases to the minimum wage and pensions, are expected to boost consumer spending. Retail and hospitality are likely to beat last year’s sales, which were dampened by bad weather and competition from blockbusters such as Barbie and Oppenheimer.
Patrick O’Brien, research director at GlobalData, highlighted renewed optimism in the retail sector, particularly among younger consumers. The expected small uptick also reflects a reaction to the pre-election spending slump, as households postpone major purchases amid uncertainty.
With a new government in place and the weather improving, the UK’s retail and hospitality sectors are set for a summer of strong spending, supported by political change and an exciting sporting calendar.