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in analysis Shared on These bullish expectations depend largely on the results of the US presidential elections, scheduled for November 5, and the potential political changes that may follow.
Solana’s price forecast for this bull market
@0xGumshoe started his forecast with a bold declaration: “SOL hits $500. The upcoming US elections will impact SOL more than any other token. That’s why I changed my price target.” Delving into potential scenarios, @0xGumshoe examined the implications of potential election outcomes — whether Kamala Harris secures the presidency or Donald Trump returns to office. Each scenario offers distinct paths to Solana’s path.
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If Kamala Harris wins, @0xGumshoe expects a mixed effect on Solana. “BTC and SOL have outperformed during the Biden/Harris term,” he noted, specifically pointing to last year’s performance under the current administration. The analyst has highlighted the approval of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for Bitcoin and Ethereum during the Biden/Harris term as a positive factor that could continue to benefit Solana. Additionally, Harris’s supposed commitment to a “less aggressive stance toward cryptocurrency regulation” suggests a more favorable environment for Solana to grow.
However, @0xGumshoe also warned of potential challenges under a Harris administration. He noted that “less regulatory clarity” and a potential new term for SEC Chairman Gary Gensler could complicate matters for Solana. Furthermore, the possibility of the Solana ETF facing immediate rejection and increasing Bitcoin dominance could cast a pall over altcoins.
Conversely, @0xGumshoe offered a more optimistic outlook if Donald Trump wins the election. “A Trump win will send Solana to the ATHs as the market realizes the SOL ETF is coming,” he asserted. The analyst emphasized that unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum, Grayscale is unlikely to offload significant amounts of Solana, which could help sustain its price. Additionally, the analyst points to the possibility of the creation of a strategic reserve for Bitcoin and the departure of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler as bullish catalysts for SOL.
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However, Trump’s victory may have downsides as well. “Higher inflation may eventually end the cycle as it does in 2021,” admitted @0xGumshoe. Furthermore, he pointed to the inherent volatility of Trump’s personality, noting that the former president “may not do what he promised,” which adds an element of unpredictability to the forecast.
In light of these scenarios, @0xGumshoe has revised Solana’s selling targets. Previously calling for a sell target of $300, he is now considering a higher threshold of $500, provided Trump wins and overall liquidity increases. “If we pair a Trump win and increased overall liquidity, I would instead sell over time as long as I think we get to $500,” he explained.
The rationale behind the $500 price target is based on Solana’s fully diluted valuation (FDV). @0xGumshoe explained, “At this price, Solana would have a FDV of $291B which puts it at the current market cap of ETH.” He views this valuation as an important benchmark, suggesting that Solana’s price could approach Ethereum’s market capitalization unless there is a significant influx of investments through ETFs, which could push the token beyond that limit.
Under Harris, @0xGumshoe’s price target for Solana remains at $300. @0xGumshoe concluded his analysis by advising caution, saying: “Elections alone are not enough to predict highs for Solana, so take this with a grain of salt. Whatever happens, it’s pretty clear that SOL will go much higher with Trump than with Harris.”
At press time, SOL was trading at $161.
Featured image from Coinbase, chart from TradingView.com