Solidarity or Squabbling: Five Things to Watch at NATO’s Summit

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(Bloomberg) — The leaders of the 31 countries that make up NATO are meeting in Vilnius, Lithuania, for a two-day summit starting Tuesday, as Russia’s war in Ukraine approaches 18 months in.

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The meeting comes at a crucial moment in the conflict. NATO is seeking to bolster Kiev with new munitions—including cluster bombs supplied by the United States—for its counteroffensive, and gauge the impact of the aborted June insurrection by Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin on Russia’s leadership and operations.

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But the alliance is also grappling with internal discord over Turkey’s reluctance to accept Sweden’s membership and whether it would pave the way for eventual accession by Ukraine.

However, the assembled leaders – including US President Joe Biden, who remains the most powerful figure in the alliance – are keen to use this week’s meeting to suggest that the conflict in Ukraine has only strengthened NATO. Biden also planned a high-level climate meeting with Britain’s King Charles III and a meeting with Nordic countries hosted by Finland, the newest member of the coalition.

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Here’s what to watch as world leaders descend on Vilnius:

Swedish Membership

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is due to meet Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson on Monday ahead of the summit, as the Scandinavian country makes a last-ditch effort to convince Ankara that it should be allowed to join NATO.

Turkey said its opposition stemmed from concerns that Sweden was not doing enough to clamp down on Kurdish separatist groups, which Ankara considers terrorist organisations.

Read more: Erdogan says Turkey cannot trust Sweden as free-roaming terrorists

Erdoğan has also indicated his eagerness to meet with Biden — US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said he expects the two to speak at the summit — and to buy US F-16 fighter jets for his military, though Ankara and Washington have described it as such. Discussions unrelated to Sweden’s membership campaign.

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While it is too late for Turkey and fellow Hungary to refuse to ratify Sweden’s membership before the summit, the allies hope that both sides will announce that they are beyond the deadlock.

Read more: Sweden’s NATO target enters home with stretch as Turkey backs bloc

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg sounded optimistic on Thursday, saying Sweden’s membership was within reach and that there could be a “positive decision” at the summit. A day later, Erdogan said Turkey could not trust a country where “terrorists roam freely in its streets”.

Ukraine aid

Ukraine will be a major topic, with President Volodymyr Zelensky planning to take part in the summit.

The 31 NATO countries are expected to offer Kiev a promise of long-term support, which aims to deepen relations without making it a member immediately, since the bloc’s Article 5 security guarantees could draw allies into Russia’s war against Ukraine. The United States on Friday announced an $800 million package that includes controversial cluster munitions, which some NATO allies have banned due to humanitarian concerns over unexploded ordnance.

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Read more: US sends cluster bombs to Ukraine despite civilian threat

Biden said in an interview with CNN on July 7 that Ukraine is not “ready for membership in NATO” due to reasons including Russia’s ongoing attack on the country and NATO’s Article 5 provisions.

Zelensky called on the summit to send clear signals of support for his country’s membership, and urged allies to offer a more realistic perspective beyond a 15-year-old statement that Ukraine would eventually join.

Allies grapple with how to address the question in the summit statement, with some eastern NATO members pushing for a more solid path. Countries like the United States and Germany wanted to focus instead on immediate assistance. One option might entail declaring that Ukraine does not need a membership action plan — a way to fast-track the country’s membership when allies eventually decide to invite it to join.

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Read more: EU leaders weigh Ukraine’s security commitments with NATO chief

The Vilnius package will upgrade the formal status of NATO’s relationship with Ukraine by creating a new NATO-Ukraine Council, allowing the country to participate directly in broader discussions about the security of the alliance and to conduct consultations with allies on its security concerns.

NATO leaders are also expected to agree to €500 million annually in non-lethal aid to help Ukraine modernize its military. On the sidelines of the summit, some allies are expected to pledge bilateral security guarantees to Ukraine, committing to ensuring its armed forces are well-equipped and well-trained in a bid to deter Russia from re-invading after the war ends.

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defense spending

NATO leaders are set to sign a new Defense Spending Pledge, with a standing commitment to spend “at least” 2% of GDP on defence. The agreement expands the coalition’s previous ambitious goal of targeting 2% and underscores pledges to spend more after invading Ukraine.

Read more: NATO allies agree to a new pledge to spend at least 2% of GDP

But many countries – including Luxembourg, Canada and Italy – are still struggling to comply with the old guideline. Only 11 out of 31 allies are expected to meet the 2% target this year, according to estimates released by NATO on Friday.

The coalition is also expected to sign off on three regional defense plans for the first time since the end of the Cold War, which detail how countries will defend territory if attacked by Russia or terrorist groups.

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Read more: NATO chief urges allies to sign defense deals to boost production

Leaders are also set to approve a defense industry action plan, aimed at boosting defense production as Ukraine burns artillery munitions faster than allies can produce them.

Secretary General

One of the biggest questions facing the leaders gathered in Vilnius is who will lead their group into the future, especially as the conflict in Ukraine threatens to drag on.

Stoltenberg agreed last week to serve another year – his fourth extension at the top job – despite previously saying he was not seeking an extension.

Read more: NATO extends Stoltenberg’s term as president for another year

But neither of the top candidates to replace him — Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen or Britain’s Defense Secretary Ben Wallace — seemed able to muster enough consensus to secure the job, and the US ultimately refrained from publicly endorsing a candidate. Biden’s top priority has been maintaining unity within the coalition, according to a person familiar with the matter.

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Stoltenberg’s return has fueled speculation that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Germany’s former defense minister, may be in line for the post after her term ends next year.

special relationship

Biden’s visit to the UK, his second in three months, is largely seen as a make-up trip after he refused to attend Charles III’s coronation in May.

Although Biden plans to visit 10 Downing Street to meet Prime Minister Rishi Sunak before traveling to Windsor Castle, he is expected to stay on the grounds for less than a day. During his royal audience, Biden and Britain’s new monarch are expected to unveil a dual effort toward a mutual passion — enlisting private companies to help fund projects that can reduce climate change.

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The British will be looking for Biden to reaffirm his commitment to a series of small trade, military and technology agreements that Sunak described as the “Atlantic Declaration” during his visit to the White House last month.

Read more: Biden, Sunak speed up defense cooperation, green subsidies

Biden could also put Sunak on the spot by pressing for a solution to the impasse over implementation of the power-sharing provisions of the Good Friday Agreement. Expect a strong pledge of military support to Ukraine, as the UK is second only to the US in providing arms and aid to Ukrainians.

— with assistance from Brendan Scott.

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