Written by Joan Voss
BARCELONA (Reuters) – Spain's socialists won the largest share of the vote in Catalonia's elections on Sunday, dealing a major blow to more than a decade of separatist rule and the dreams of independence that some still nurture in the wealthy northeastern region.
The Socialists, led locally by Salvador Illa, gained 42 seats in the 135-seat assembly with more than 99% of the votes counted, while the hardline separatist Junts party came in second place with 35 seats, and the more moderate incumbent separatist party Esquerra Republica. de Catalunya (ERC) has 20 seats.
Spain's largest opposition party, the conservative People's Party, also had a good night, seeing its biggest increase since the last vote in 2021 from three seats to 15 on Sunday. The voter turnout was remarkably low, reaching 58%.
The result appears to represent an existential threat to the separatist rule in Catalonia, which led an illegal independence referendum in 2017 and a declaration of independence that caused the worst institutional crisis in Spain in more than 30 years, but whose movement has recently lost its strength and unity.
It also represents a vindication of Spanish Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez's controversial attempt to normalize relations with troubled Catalonia, including pardons for convictions related to the independence campaign and, more recently, a controversial pardon covering others still facing trial.
Speaking as the vote count concluded, Ella praised the “new era” for the region. However, with no party obtaining a clear majority and deep ideological divisions between them, there remains the risk of a repeat vote.
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The separatist parties combined, namely the European Christian Congress, the “Guntes” party, the far-left CUP party, and the far-right Alianca Catalana party, do not have the 68 seats required to be able to form a coalition government.
Ella's socialists will also need to forge an agreement – most likely with the European Rescue Council – but the separatist parties have so far rejected any proposal to help the ruling National Party govern in Catalonia.
Ella may instead try to form an unconventional alliance not only with the far-left Somare Party, its coalition partner in the national government, but also with the conservative People's Party and the far-right Vox, with whom the Socialists have long said they will not negotiate.
On Sunday night, PRI leader Pere Aragonés, Catalonia's outgoing president, told reporters that his party would move into opposition, effectively ruling out support for the Socialists.
Carles Puigdemont, leader of Gantz's party, said his party had performed well, but turnout among separatist voters remained low, and without a strong performance by the ERC, AC and CUP, his options were limited.
He previously said that if he did not win and the Socialists allied with the People's Party to lead the region, he might withdraw his support from the national minority government – which was put in place after inconclusive national elections in July, risking renewed instability at the national level.
Whatever happened next, the headline of the night was the suppression of Catalan separatist sentiment: “The pro-independence movement has exhausted its ideas to persuade or mobilize people as it did before,” said political analyst and historian Joan Escoles.