Amid the fanfare and anticipation, Standard Chartered, a British cross-border bank, did just that Expected Ethereum ETFs are likely to be approved by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) this week.
According to the bank, approval of these spot ETFs could spur significant inflows into the market, with estimates ranging from $15 billion to $45 billion in the first year alone.
In addition, this expected influx of capital is expected to significantly boost Ethereum market dynamics, which could push its price towards the $8,000 mark by the end of 2024.
Implications of Ethereum ETF Approval:
It is worth noting that Standard Chartered's bullish outlook is supported by the impending deadlines for the first round of Ethereum ETFs, with VanEck's deadline on May 23 and Ark Invest/21Shares on May 24.
Jeff Kendrick, head of FX and digital asset research at Standard Chartered, expressed high confidence in these ETFs being approved, estimating an “80% to 90%” probability. Kendrick particularly noted:
Following approval, we estimate that spot ETFs will generate inflows of between 2.39 and 9.15 million ether in the first 12 months after approval. In US dollar terms, this equates to approximately $15 billion to $45 billion. As a percentage of market capitalization, it is similar to our estimates of flows into Bitcoin ETFs, which have proven accurate.
Kendrick explained that if ETH ETFs receive approval as expected, Ethereum could maintain its current price ratio with Bitcoin, which is expected to reach $150,000 by the end of 2024. This prediction puts Ethereum at a valuation of $8,000 by the end of General.
Furthermore, with Standard Chartered forecasting Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, Ethereum could also see its price rise to $14,000 over the same period, reaffirming the bank's previous target price in March.
Bullish market sentiment amid rising ETF approval odds
After the prospect of ETF approvals increased, Ethereum price rose, surpassing the $3,600 level for the first time since April 19.
This represents an increase of more than 20% over the past 24 hours, pushing Ethereum's market capitalization past $450 billion.
The market response to these developments has been largely positive, with the emergence of derivative markets such as Derebit Concentrated bets On Ethereum calls that exceed the $4,000 price tag. The most favorable strike price among these options traders is an ambitious $5,000, which indicates strong bullish sentiment.
Notably, Bloomberg analysts increased optimism regarding the approval of Ethereum spot ETFs through an unexpected increase. Approval rate up to 75%a significant jump from the previous estimate of 25%.
This reassessment follows reports that the SEC is rapidly changing its position, with exchanges urged to quickly update their 19b-4 filings.
to update: @JSeyff I'm upping our odds of getting immediate ETF approval to 75% (up from 25%), and hearing talk this afternoon that the SEC might do a 180 on this (an increasingly political issue), so I'm scrambling Everyone now (as we assumed everyone would be rejected). be seen… https://t.co/gcxgY Hz3om
– Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) May 20, 2024
According to Eric Balchunas, approval could come as soon as Wednesday, signaling a major shift in the regulatory landscape and potentially paving the way for further gains in the price of ETH.
Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView