After such a historic run in the last couple of years, it was only a matter of time before the Bitcoin Bear market outlook took over crypto discussions. Many pundits and experts have shared when they believe the digital asset market will reach the top of the cycle and perhaps see a reversal.
While the crowd is still somewhat optimistic about the potential of various cryptocurrencies, a market moving in the opposite direction would not be a surprise. A popular crypto trader on the social media platform echoed a similar sentiment, providing potential timing for the arrival of a crypto bear market.
Why a bear market could start in April
In a January 25 post on Platform X, prominent crypto analyst Ali Martinez subscriber His “unpopular” opinion on the current Bitcoin bull cycle and its possible end. According to The Pundit, a bear market could start in about three months.
The reason behind this projection is Bitcoin’s historical price performance across different halving cycles. The Bitcoin halving, an event that occurs approximately every four years, tightens the Bitcoin supply by cutting the mining reward by half.
As shown in 2024 – The halving event in 2024 has historically been a precursor to significant price growth. However, the post-halving rally is usually followed by significant profits, leading to market consolidation and a bear market.
Source: Ali_charts/X
Historically, about 276 days after the halving event has proven to be pivotal in the course of the Bitcoin market. Specifically, Bitcoin saw significant price growth after crossing the 276-day milestone in the 2012-2016 halving cycle.
However, the BTC market saw a shift in sentiment and the market fell severely 367 days after the halving – 91 days after the 276-day milestone. If this historical pattern continues, investors could see a bear market begin sometime in late April.
As of this writing, BTC price is sitting below the $105,000 mark, reflecting no significant movement in the past day.
Retail interest on the rise?
While historical price data is an effective way to analyze the course of a cycle, on-chain data is another method that sheds light on cyclical price movements. One such data is retail interest in Bitcoin, which measures small-scale investor demand in the premier cryptocurrency.
Related Reading: MicroStrategy May Face Tax Issues Over $19 Billion Unrealized Bitcoin Gains: Report
Demand from retail investors is usually associated with the euphoric peak phase. “Looking back over the past cycles, the last two major spikes in searches for “how to buy crypto” occurred at BTC It was around $65,000 in May 2021 and $69,000 in November 2021 — at the top of the market,” Martinez said in a separate post on X.
Source: Ali_charts/X
As shown in the chart above, the “interest over time” indicator appears to pick up again in 2025. This could be a signal of an imminent top for the crypto market.
The price of Bitcoin on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from ISTOCK, chart from TradingView