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The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday to between 4.25% and 4.5%.
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The central bank also predicted two cuts next year instead of four, sending stocks lower.
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Many analysts believe that the reaction is exaggerated.
Federal Reserve Lowering the benchmark interest rate On Wednesday to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, bringing the decline since mid-September to 100 basis points.
Wall Street Usually celebrated Interest rate cuts as lower borrowing costs lead to spending, investment and employment. Lowering interest rates also signals that inflation is under control and makes risky assets such as stocks relatively more attractive by lowering yields on safer assets such as Treasury bonds.
yet Stock tank Because Fed officials expected two cuts next year, down from four previously.
the Standard & Poor’s 500 and Dow Jones It decreased by about 3%, while it decreased Nasdaq 100 It fell nearly 4% after the meeting. Sharp decline led to 74% rise VIXotherwise known as the stock market fear gauge. This was the second largest single-day jump in history.
But while many market pros are still urging caution amid smaller interest rate cuts in 2025, a number of analysts across Wall Street see Wednesday’s sell-off as a “buy the dip” opportunity, with Intense reaction to the Fed meeting is derailing this year’s outlook. Santa Claus March.
Here’s what investors and analysts are saying after Wednesday’s violent sell-off.
Schleif said investors were “overreacting” because they knew before the meeting that the Fed would likely signal a pause on interest rate cuts.
Moreover, the economy remains strong, which is most important, she added.
“Markets seem to be ignoring the number of times and ways in which Chairman Powell has indicated how strong the economy is,” Schleif said. “The slowing pace of Fed cuts is for good reason: the economy is strong, and a strong economy is ultimately what matters most for stocks and earnings.”
The Fed’s hawkish pivot probably won’t last and instead shift to dovish once the labor market shows signs of weakness, Citi economists said.
With only 50 basis points of interest rate cuts priced into the market between now and mid-2026, Hollinghurst isn’t buying it.
“The continued decline in the labor market is likely to become more pronounced in the coming months, keeping the Fed cutting rates at a faster pace than markets determine,” Hollinghurst said in a note on Wednesday. “We expect a sharp shift in monetary policy from Powell and the committee in the next few months.”
Ives said the Fed’s interest rate path is not the driving force for technology stocks over the next few years.
“Ultimately, this index is not driven by the soft bearish and bullish backdrop of risk assets,” Ives said in a note to clients.
Instead, Ives told his clients to stay focused on the technology’s two biggest catalysts through 2025: the continued development and adoption of artificial intelligence and a friendlier regulatory environment that will pave the way for more mergers and acquisitions.
US markets played curmudgeon on Wednesday, falling as the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone dampened holiday cheer.
“Investors should view this as a healthy place to take profits and not the end of the party, after what has been a fantastic run for markets since the US election.”
“This is a Fed that doesn’t really trust its view at any given time and is willingly reactive rather than proactive even though its actions impact the economy with a long lag.
“You would have thought that between the comments and the expected changes, the world had changed dramatically since the big rate cut just three months ago. And it clearly doesn’t take much to get the Fed to change its view. I can guarantee it will. Shift Time Other.”
‘We had inflation expectations at the end of the year, but they kind of collapsed.’
“Not exactly the confidence-inspiring line you’d expect from a Fed Chairman. But Jerome Powell’s performance at yesterday’s press conference was not his finest hour. In what may be the most disturbing display of his tenure, Powell ceded the stage to his own.” The hawks were visibly nervous as he tried to promote a strategy he did not appear to fully endorse.
“Powell noted that inflation is moving sideways and ‘increasing uncertainty’ about its path. These admissions reveal that the central bank is increasingly unsure of where it stands, with interest rate markets now anticipating just one cut for 2025 (as we do), and without… “Real consensus on when this final cut will arrive.”
“Markets have a very bad habit of overreacting to the Fed’s policy moves. The Fed hasn’t done or said anything that deviates from what the market expected — it’s more like, ‘I’m leaving for Christmas, so I’ll sell and start next year.’
“The good news is that this 10-day sell-off should set the stage for the Santa Rally leading up to next week.”
“Santa came early and cut the interest rate by 25 basis points in market stocks, but he attached it with a note saying there will be coal next year.
“The market is looking to the future and has ignored the good news about today’s rate cuts and instead focused on the scarcity of rate cuts next year.”
“What we heard last night from the Fed as an accompaniment to cutting interest rates was a shock to the stock market.
“The Fed is sending a clear signal that it has almost completed its rate cutting phase. 2025 will be a major interruption in the Fed’s rate cutting cycle.
“Trump’s blessing could quickly turn into a curse. If the market expects yields to rise further, the Fed is unlikely to intervene against these forces. If inflation data continues to rise in January and February, this could be the case for the Fed.” Interest rate cuts.”
“While the Fed bears all the pressure from today’s sell-off, a reality check from overbought conditions, deteriorating market breadth, and rising interest rates is arguably overdue.
“Overall, today’s FOMC meeting brought back some unwanted clouds of uncertainty over monetary policy next year. At the very least, market expectations have shifted toward a deeper, slower-than-expected rate-cutting cycle. Technically, it remains Near-term risks remain to the upside for 10-year Treasury yields, creating potential headwinds for stocks.
“The Fed has poured cold water on the market’s already dwindling hopes for generous interest rate cuts in 2025.
“Given the risk of a resurgence of inflation due to potential trade tariffs and a migration slowdown that has eased pressure in the labor market, market expectations of just two additional cuts in 2025 now look reasonable.
“We expected this political outcome, so it does not change our recently upgraded view on US stocks. US stocks can still benefit from AI and other major forces, from strong economic growth and from broad-based earnings growth – and we see them outperforming their peers.” International in 2025.
“With an economy in chaos and an incoming president with a loose fiscal agenda, you wonder why the Fed felt it necessary to cut.
“Is this to appease the incoming administration or is there a bump in the road that the Fed can see that the rest of us are missing.”
“The FOMC delivered as aggressive a cut as possible yesterday, and market participants weren’t particularly happy with what they heard.
“However, it was a bit puzzling to see the market’s backlash to Powell’s comments, especially given how ‘every man and his dog’ were anticipating this kind of turnaround in the run-up to the meeting.
“Despite this, it does look as if markets have overreacted to Powell’s message, and that we may have reached something of a hawkish extreme here.
“Therefore, I would be a bearish buyer of stocks here, as strong earnings and economic growth should see the path of least resistance continue to lead to the upside, offsetting the fading impact of Fed policy.”
Correction: December 19, 2024 — An earlier version of this story incorrectly named the investment company. It’s BMO Private Wealth, not BMP Private Wealth.
She also misspelled the name of Rabobank’s analyst as Steven Koopman. This is Stefan Koopman.
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