Strategy and weather: Why Hezbollah has stepped up aerial attacks

More than 250 missiles were fired at Israel yesterday, triggering more than 500 sirens. There were direct hits in Petah Tikva, Kafr Qasem, Nahariya, and Haifa, and a number of people were injured. The reason for the large rocket launches and strikes is the winter weather, which interferes with the IDF’s ability to detect and intercept rocket launches, and the extensive arsenal that Hezbollah still maintains in Lebanon. All this is against the backdrop of negotiations on the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon, and Hezbollah’s desire not to appear weak at the end of the fighting.

“First of all, missile launches have diplomatic significance,” says Dr. Yehoshua Kalisky, a senior scholar at the Institute for National Security Studies. He added: “They want to show that they will not surrender, that they are on the ground, and that they are capable of shooting as much as they want.” The former commander of Israeli air defenses, Brigadier General Ran Kokhav, adds: “They are trying to establish the narrative of fighting and success until the last minute, while we want to improve the narrative of Hezbollah’s defeat. In the end, everyone is only compensating for losses.” “

Beyond the strategic issues, there is also the practical impact of the cloudy and rainy weather that swept all of Israel on Sunday. Bad weather has two effects, Dr. Kaliski says. Wind and turbulence divert the missile or drone off course. If you want to intercept an Iron Dome missile, you know the missile’s estimated trajectory, but winds push the missile and interceptor off course, causing an error.

And this is not the end of the problems. “Clouds and fog affect detection,” says Dr. Kaliski. “Interception systems have optical components, and once the weather gets bad, those components don’t work as well.” “Lightning also disrupts the electrical systems of the radar and interceptor missile, and further down the track if snow or hail accumulates on the detection systems, that is another problem.” For Hezbollah’s missiles, all this makes no significant difference. “For the enemy, this is not a problem. He has enough missiles, the arsenal is large, and he hits wherever he hits, but for us, accuracy is important in order to intercept them. Thus, in severe weather, the enemy has an advantage,” says Kaliski.

On the other hand, Kokhav says that in the case of rockets and missiles, especially long-range ones, they are intercepted at high altitudes where the weather effect is less. “Even for optical systems, their use is only at the end of the process, which takes place at high altitudes,” says Kokhav. “The weather impact is marginal compared to drones and UFO detection.”

However, he and Kaliski agree that when it comes to drones, the impact is significant and significant. “They’re lightweight and can get off course easily, and the drones start flying in unpredictable places,” says Kaliski. “That sends a lot of people to shelters.” Kokhav adds: “The main problem of bad weather is not rockets and missiles, but rather the detection and interception of drones, which are much lighter, fly low and slowly, and are picked up by the wind.”

“We have to adapt to the weather,” says Kaleski. “Part of the security concept is knowing how to deal with this type of scenario. We need systems that are resistant to electrical impulses generated by lightning, and optical systems that are not affected by the weather. Conditions, and software development that takes them into account.” Temperature gradients, because of their effect on the movement of electromagnetic waves in the atmosphere.

Published by Globes, Israel Business News – en.globes.co.il – on November 25, 2024.

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