Similar to previous Gaza operations, psychological warfare is a top priority for the terrorist organizations. Analysis of the hours when most of the longer-range rockets are launched finds that 8pm is the most popular hour, when the prime time evening news broadcasts are being aired.
Dr. Ido Zelkovitz, an expert in Palestinian politics at the University of Haifa and Jezreel Valley Academic College says, “Hamas’s priority is to launch rockets, especially longer-range ones, during the hours when the news broadcasts are aired in Israel. For Hamas, psychological warfare is very important in the campaign against Israel. The organization has developed media awareness, and operates several media outlets and websites aimed at different audiences and in different languages, alongside its own news agency, newspapers and media channels. Hamas also produces videos with a very high level of editing.”
As part of the study, Dr. Zelkovitz followed the patterns of rocket launches from the Gaza Strip during the eleven days of the war (between October 7 and 17). The analysis counted every alarm that was sounded throughout the country, whether in remote settlements near the Gaza Strip or in large cities like Tel Aviv. The figures do not include the early hours of the outbreak of the war, because the shooting was so intense and distorted the results in the remaining days of the fighting. Therefore, it examined the data from noon on Saturday, October 7. Startup investor Danny Leshem took the data from the Home Front Command website.
Dr. Zelkovitz explains that Hamas’s psychological warfare has two aims: the first is to create fear and damage motivation on the Israeli side. “They see psychological warfare as an important tool in shortening the number of days of fighting. The shorter the fighting, the more significant a psychological achievement they will be able to produce. Another aim of the psychological warfare, which is an important pillar for them, is widening the divisions in Israeli society, a move that serves them. From here you can see their efforts to spread conspiracy theories on the internet, like treason from within.”
Another time given priority in Gaza for launching rockets is 9pm. Dr. Zelkovitz explains, “This is an hour with a mythical dimension. This is, among other things, the hour associated with the assassination of Islamic Jihad top leader Baha Abu Al-Ata, in the Black Belt Operation in 2019. Since then, the Islamic Jihad has to regularly launch long-range rockets into the center of the country at 9pm, and the organization even calls it ‘the time of Abu al-Ata.'”
This is another type of use of the launch times as part of the terrorist organizations’ consciousness-raising effort in the Gaza Strip, but one that is more directed at the internal Palestinian arena than towards Israel. “It’s meant to glorify the sacrifice and create an ethos of heroism,” explains Dr. Zelkovitz.
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In addition, the data shows that lunch hours are also prioritized by the organizations in the Gaza Strip. Zelkovitz says, “Beyond the fact that it is noon today, which disrupts the routine, 12 o’clock is also close to the noon prayer. The desire to disrupt the daily routine of the residents of Israel is probably the reason for the many launches around this time.”
The reason Hamas doesn’t launch rockets at night
As part of the study, rocket launches were examined over three Israeli cities: Sderot, Ashkelon and Tel Aviv. In Sderot the rockets came intermittently throughout the day, in Ashkelon, which has been the target of 25% of all rockets, and Tel Aviv, the rockets are generally in the afternoon and evening.
At night, the rockets launches almost completely stop throughout the country. Dr. Zelkovitz says this stems from Hamas’s understanding that the current campaign will last a long time, and therefore the organization prefers to hold back stocks of rockets. “Also, it may be that at night it is easier for the Air Force to identify launch sites and to fire on them.”
Published by Globes, Israel business news – en.globes.co.il – on October 19, 2023.
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